AI · resolved market
Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas by June 30 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43cbb41ed2b42c94ab66eb827032151f5ec52ffa32a9bf4e4456f42c7e022739
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,423
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa25e…414bbacked Yes | 41c | 11,770$4,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,825.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…ab18backed Yes | 41c | 10,560$4,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,329.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfa…9eb9backed No | 59c | 7,763$4,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,182.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43c6…f8b2backed No | 59c | 7,381$4,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,026.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad05…735fbacked No | 59c | 7,186$4,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,946.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 48c | 3,142$1,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,639.08 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x049e…5e44backed No | 77c | 1,681$1,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.05 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes | 29c | 1,408$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.55 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…64ddbacked No | 80c | 971.85$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.96 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2759…09bfbacked Yes | 65c | 460.98$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.58 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf91f…c729backed No | 64c | 403.56$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 72c | 400$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -7.2wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed Yes | 37c | 292.66$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9a…a377backed No | 37c | 250$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9c…fab1backed Yes | 45c | 243.21$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed Yes | 66c | 229.24$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.44 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…228ebacked Yes | 50c | 220$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x157d…c16fbacked Yes | 41c | 220$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…3aadbacked Yes | 47c | 212.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba9…8920backed Yes | 45c | 146$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 59c | 141.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.79 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 122.18$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.86 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe701…942ebacked Yes | 72c | 120$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 39c | 113$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 44c | 111.02$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes | 40c | 110$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 22c | 103.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac2…b483backed Yes | 14c | 103.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3051…c1f2backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…4b43backed No | 59c | 95.77$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe102…71dfbacked No | 74c | 82.69$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 41c | 77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 46c | 72.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 27c | 69.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…f2c0backed Yes | 25c | 68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 71c | 67.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 72c | 66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 58c | 56.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0b…e28cbacked Yes | 34c | 54.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 20c | 54.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 71c | 53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…12febacked Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…c098backed Yes | 43c | 46.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -71%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd949…0b05backed No | 77c | 45.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…ab76backed Yes | 25c | 42.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb2d…1dc7backed Yes | 32c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6537…b9debacked Yes | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…81dbbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe582…b6dcbacked No | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa87d…a82cbacked Yes | 42c | 38.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 40c | 36.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 41c | 36.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed No | 55c | 35.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb651…2089backed Yes | 38c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…6d71backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 77c | 28.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30e3…b595backed No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…ee92backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 70c | 20.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…79f7backed No | 63c | 18.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas by June 30 2026?this page
- Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026?No won
- Will Waymo launch in Denver by June 30 2026?No won
- Will Waymo launch in Detroit by June 30 2026?No won
- Will Waymo launch in London by June 30 2026?No won
- Will Waymo launch in Miami by June 30 2026?Yes won
- Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026?Yes won
- Will Waymo launch in New York City by June 30 2026?No won
- Will Waymo launch in Washington DC by June 30 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.