Movies · resolved market
Will Gaitok die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeff8cb3182a8146c719f0220335fc17effd25db404ae558771718d79aa8aab48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No | 68c | 502.37$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.91 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 63c | 450$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.18 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed No | 64c | 306.88$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.96 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 300$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Yes | 39c | 250.32$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 28c | 227.71$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 37c | 206.87$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.02 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 41c | 189.49$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.57 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked No | 62c | 160$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…c07fbacked Yes | 27c | 92.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 69c | 81$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8588…de5ebacked No | 58c | 72.46$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -58%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 62c | 61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93c6…d9dbbacked Yes | 36c | 59.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 22c | 53.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed No | 69c | 51.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…6a0bbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd217…0ea5backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…7044backed No | 60c | 49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4094…5c0cbacked Yes | 43c | 46.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 44.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…f6debacked No | 62c | 43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3790…6973backed Yes | 36c | 40.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff3…1d24backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8939…3872backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x790b…e044backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d23…39a0backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x651e…2ecabacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…1148backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd54f…c0c5backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…af1abacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0d…2744backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…93a6backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbf…08afbacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x472a…c2debacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2f…73d0backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…ddfdbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 40cpaid | +246.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…064abacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed73…ab52backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4c…430abacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…a15cbacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c84…12d3backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f1…715dbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa5…1e48backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bb…4b3ebacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa666…c036backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee48…d7d4backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7884…523ebacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9810…632fbacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec71…6737backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe252…0072backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570b…6515backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…212cbacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x837d…8620backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x042c…8f21backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…7653backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5402…26eebacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5e…5787backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e0…1ff7backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30bf…b779backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d34…8956backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7757…8edebacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7286…9065backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61be…d856backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd85c…a569backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…df0abacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6392…6198backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef74…2878backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ca…3969backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e4…4487backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9494…06f1backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +245.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…8e1abacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420f…2f81backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0a…c942backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…ecd1backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13ea…22a5backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6c…977dbacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a9…c4e6backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d0…2629backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dba…958cbacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a3…66aebacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…e5f4backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7009…8abcbacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba81…7fc7backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5253…f503backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x163f…5b7dbacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2a…7409backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa57e…881fbacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d4…e53fbacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked No | 61c | 25.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…cebcbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6b…e451backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gaitok die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?this page
- Will Belinda die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?No won
- Will Chelsea die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?Yes won
- Will Chloe die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?No won
- Will Greg/Gary die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?No won
- Will Jaclyn die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?No won
- Will Jim Hollinger die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?Yes won
- Will Laurie die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?No won
- Will Lochlan die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?No won
- Will Mook die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?No won
- Will Pornchai die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?No won
- Will Rick Hatchett die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?Yes won
- Will Saxson die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?No won
- Will Sritala die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?No won
- Will Timothy Ratliff die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?No won
- Will Victoria die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.