TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Gaitok die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,927
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,085

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,927 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No68c502.37$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.911861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No63c450$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.1834651.2%177 W · 169 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed No64c306.88$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.962339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-42.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes33c300$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10047328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Yes39c250.32$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.56425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes28c227.71$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.218431%57 W · 127 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes37c206.87$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.027020%14 W · 56 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes41c189.49$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.576127.9%17 W · 44 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cf1…3c6bbacked No62c160$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2675…2374backed Yes38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386229%18 W · 44 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8de…c07fbacked Yes27c92.29$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked No69c81$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.311618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-74.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8588…de5ebacked No58c72.46$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.43825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-58%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed No62c61$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.99560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93c6…d9dbbacked Yes36c59.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-49.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes22c53.11$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.683013.3%4 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-61.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed No69c51.01$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.012147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed Yes50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251030%3 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick53cpaid-60.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x169e…de26backed No73c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.51650%8 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d5f…6a0bbacked No61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick61cpaid+65.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd217…0ea5backed Yes39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3832…7044backed No60c49$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-26.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4094…5c0cbacked Yes43c46.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes38c44.85$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8387033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3335…f6debacked No62c43$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.34450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3790…6973backed Yes36c40.24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeff3…1d24backed Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8939…3872backed No59c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x790b…e044backed No61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d23…39a0backed No61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x651e…2ecabacked No61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd61e…1148backed No61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd54f…c0c5backed No61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfaa5…af1abacked No61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b0d…2744backed Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe521…93a6backed Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bbf…08afbacked Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x472a…c2debacked Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f2f…73d0backed No59c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d1f…ddfdbacked No60c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick40cpaid+246.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x186a…064abacked No60c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xed73…ab52backed No61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d4c…430abacked No61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb51…a15cbacked No61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c84…12d3backed Yes41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f1…715dbacked No62c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa5…1e48backed Yes41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82bb…4b3ebacked No62c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa666…c036backed Yes41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee48…d7d4backed No61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7884…523ebacked No61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9810…632fbacked Yes38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec71…6737backed No61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe252…0072backed Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x570b…6515backed Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a32…212cbacked Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x837d…8620backed Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x042c…8f21backed No61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02a1…7653backed No61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5402…26eebacked No61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d5e…5787backed No61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15e0…1ff7backed Yes38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x30bf…b779backed Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d34…8956backed Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7757…8edebacked Yes41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7286…9065backed No61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61be…d856backed No59c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dd0…bc3dbacked No73c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.81330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-53.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd85c…a569backed No61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc853…df0abacked Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6392…6198backed No59c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef74…2878backed Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x65ca…3969backed Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33e4…4487backed Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9494…06f1backed No61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.62100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+245.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbb7…8e1abacked Yes40c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x420f…2f81backed Yes40c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a0a…c942backed Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…ecd1backed Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13ea…22a5backed Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c6c…977dbacked No61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7a9…c4e6backed No61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d0…2629backed No61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dba…958cbacked Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a3…66aebacked Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8328…e5f4backed Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7009…8abcbacked Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba81…7fc7backed Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5253…f503backed No62c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x163f…5b7dbacked Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd2a…7409backed Yes38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa57e…881fbacked No61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87d4…e53fbacked No61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa75c…895ebacked No61c25.19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.82837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-40.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7975…d3f7backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x290d…cebcbacked No62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-61.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c6b…e451backed No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.