TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Rick Hatchett die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,229
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,333

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,229 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x635d…5025backed No36c826.61$298 inLost-$298.142339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-42.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9b76…1786backed Yes33c613.27$200 inWon+$413.272100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+157.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c94…5b86backed No67c519.99$347 inLost-$346.681414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-58.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes32c420$136 inWon+$283.934651.2%177 W · 169 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2675…2374backed Yes17c346.62$58 inWon+$289.016229%18 W · 44 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d34…7c14backed Yes52c172.18$90 inWon+$82.189238%35 W · 57 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed Yes15c154$24 inWon+$130.3613150.4%66 W · 65 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes16c125.63$20 inWon+$105.631145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick25cpaid+54.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8588…de5ebacked No56c117$65 inLost-$65.46825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-58%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5cf3…acbdbacked No70c114.49$80 inLost-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed No73c103.5$76 inLost-$762147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d7…31bfbacked No68c100$68 inLost-$68.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8d8…81d2backed No78c90$70 inLost-$70.120%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes36c82.86$30 inWon+$52.836127.9%17 W · 44 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5652…ff34backed No65c68.82$45 inLost-$44.5320%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93c6…d9dbbacked No76c65$49 inLost-$49.25728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-49.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes49c65$32 inWon+$33.118836.4%32 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb18…6ed0backed Yes30c57.59$18 inWon+$40.052268.2%15 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+18.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a08…d192backed No51c50$25 inLost-$25.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes24c50$12 inWon+$37.753013.3%4 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-61.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe93…86b4backed Yes61c48.87$30 inWon+$18.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1977…32e8backed Yes42c42$18 inWon+$24.322737%10 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4068…9a51backed No71c30$21 inLost-$21.310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a48…22e8backed No54c29.75$16 inLost-$15.923964.1%25 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d26…7472backed No71c20$14 inLost-$14.220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c1c…eb65backed Yes67c20$13 inWon+$6.54475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+43.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8ca…c8e0backed No53c20$11 inLost-$10.620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.