TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Chelsea die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,996
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,030

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,996 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 208 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x635d…5025backed No33c913.63$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.732339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-42.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No58c850$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.4834651.2%177 W · 169 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes79c311.7$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.2147328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Yes38c279.85$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.16425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b2c…cb50backed Yes47c255.33$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5fb…c3efbacked Yes21c234.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+369.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ed9…516abacked Yes56c187.15$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed Yes41c154$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.8613150.4%66 W · 65 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc550…272dbacked Yes43c150$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No14c127.18$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.267020%14 W · 56 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a1a…83eabacked No77c120$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.970%0 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No79c100$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2675…2374backed Yes41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596229%18 W · 44 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b63…4b44backed No61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611080%8 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+67%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x93c6…d9dbbacked Yes45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-49.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a08…d192backed Yes48c99.99$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.05250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5652…ff34backed No51c98.84$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No63c91.2$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1787033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4094…5c0cbacked No44c87.52$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.440%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x018d…7f0abacked No45c85$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed No58c75.98$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes23c75.61$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.914148.8%20 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x285c…8f76backed No64c70$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xabcb…1b37backed Yes36c70$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x81ee…4c35backed No64c69$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1f…2374backed Yes36c69$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x344f…53b8backed Yes36c66$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe25a…f3dcbacked No64c66$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x96a1…657fbacked Yes36c66$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f64…0a71backed No64c66$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfac3…1b7bbacked Yes36c65$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+38.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x24da…8918backed No64c65$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdef…090abacked Yes36c64$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfb3…1c4fbacked No64c64$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x79b6…5db0backed Yes36c60$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…b38fbacked Yes36c60$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82e3…7718backed Yes36c60$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d93…82e4backed No64c60$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8374…7eeabacked No64c60$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbcf…9e64backed Yes36c60$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x94b5…10b3backed No64c60$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bd6…f461backed No64c60$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f58…7fe5backed No64c60$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ca1…9531backed No64c60$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x830b…3df8backed No64c60$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0521…ae90backed Yes36c60$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4097…ddc9backed No64c60$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x181d…e37dbacked No64c60$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5094…9050backed Yes36c60$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab1…3c09backed Yes36c60$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3702…850abacked Yes36c60$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e8e…e493backed No64c60$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bf5…c71abacked Yes36c60$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b57…154abacked Yes36c60$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9d…398ebacked Yes20c60$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No26c59.13$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.593013.3%4 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-61.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5cb…504cbacked Yes36c57$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ae8…d052backed No64c57$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x11a1…7afebacked No49c55$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.95616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick51cpaid-77.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8588…de5ebacked No52c52$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.04825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-58%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a48…22e8backed Yes47c51.42$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.383964.1%25 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked No41c50.71$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.791618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-74.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ba0…f119backed Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a76…5a38backed No64c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9cd…2000backed Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x477d…0967backed Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f54…ef1dbacked Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9051…1ca2backed No64c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3af…8599backed No64c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f66…382ebacked No64c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x10df…6578backed Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xecdd…d1ecbacked Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82ec…dcfdbacked Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb851…459ebacked No64c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x02e3…9f98backed No64c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bd9…7870backed Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a15…1573backed No64c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x29ce…d69cbacked No64c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fd5…c313backed Yes35c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dd0…bc3dbacked No58c46.35$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.991330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-53.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4184…b55dbacked Yes36c42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xccc1…eed1backed No64c42$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7bf…0519backed Yes36c42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb31…98b5backed No64c42$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3707…a17ebacked No64c41$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x830f…ac79backed Yes36c41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x183c…f8b7backed No64c41$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe04d…f06abacked No64c41$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x06cd…3447backed Yes36c41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b5e…cc09backed Yes36c41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x44ad…47a9backed Yes36c41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f2…7ec8backed No64c41$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb634…9f6ebacked Yes36c41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bc4…cca9backed No64c41$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xab72…dfb8backed No64c40$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x15b9…a734backed Yes36c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfee7…85a5backed Yes36c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f99…815bbacked No64c40$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x75d4…05d7backed No64c40$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4656…050cbacked No64c40$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.