Movies · resolved market
Will Lochlan die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3422fd98f002086415ea92a763a54489e365706b3c8f8218875ec0839a4941f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 18c | 499.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Yes | 16c | 455.71$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes | 16c | 360$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe48…dd08backed Yes | 30c | 337.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 21c | 318.33$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 15c | 290$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 25c | 253$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.05 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 16c | 220$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes | 20c | 188.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 13c | 149$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Yes | 12c | 142.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93c6…d9dbbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…7726backed Yes | 27c | 84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed No | 77c | 27.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 77c | 25.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lochlan die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?this page
- Will Belinda die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?No won
- Will Chelsea die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?Yes won
- Will Chloe die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?No won
- Will Gaitok die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?No won
- Will Greg/Gary die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?No won
- Will Jaclyn die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?No won
- Will Jim Hollinger die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?Yes won
- Will Laurie die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?No won
- Will Mook die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?No won
- Will Pornchai die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?No won
- Will Rick Hatchett die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?Yes won
- Will Saxson die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?No won
- Will Sritala die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?No won
- Will Timothy Ratliff die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?No won
- Will Victoria die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.