Movies · resolved market
Will Greg/Gary die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa846e85cfb41b564bad7cd8a90f29fef5c00acb4c612f7b9db7297ae1d3efbca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 11c | 6,264$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.81 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 29c | 429.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.9 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 22c | 225.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked No | 75c | 155$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e53…412cbacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed No | 71c | 114.66$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed No | 75c | 103.1$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 102.98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 55c | 98.18$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 28c | 85.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01f1…fa49backed Yes | 49c | 75.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 64c | 62.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93c6…d9dbbacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 79c | 44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed Yes | 27c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 58c | 41.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa648…76ecbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…c07fbacked Yes | 48c | 31.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb41…a826backed No | 79c | 18.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No | 76c | 16.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Greg/Gary die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?this page
- Will Belinda die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?No won
- Will Chelsea die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?Yes won
- Will Chloe die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?No won
- Will Gaitok die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?No won
- Will Jaclyn die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?No won
- Will Jim Hollinger die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?Yes won
- Will Laurie die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?No won
- Will Lochlan die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?No won
- Will Mook die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?No won
- Will Pornchai die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?No won
- Will Rick Hatchett die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?Yes won
- Will Saxson die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?No won
- Will Sritala die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?No won
- Will Timothy Ratliff die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?No won
- Will Victoria die in Season 3 of the White Lotus?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.