IPO · resolved market
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc57905cc81caed2ac8f984475c0383981c0f321c82da53e1a4ba8c0124c051d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25b7…cc0ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 40c | 716$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.69 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed Yes | 74c | 612.37$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14d7…db87backed Yes | 55c | 540.92$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No | 40c | 395$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked No | 58c | 200$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked No | 43c | 199.1$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…9411backed Yes | 65c | 177.76$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.33 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 140.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | -8.1wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd578…446bbacked No | 43c | 115.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +130.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 18c | 111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6721…220cbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90d…6fe4backed Yes | 51c | 98.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…6c19backed Yes | 48c | 89.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 74c | 85.31$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa321…a72abacked Yes | 51c | 78.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked Yes | 20c | 72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 28c | 58.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…af60backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 29c | 49.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 30c | 42.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 92 | 15.2%14 W · 78 L | -16.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…dcfebacked Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 44c | 39.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +206.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a4…5a14backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d8…c809backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95cf…e7ddbacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…e406backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…4a48backed Yes | 68c | 22.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…2eddbacked Yes | 79c | 15.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.