Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump impose tariffs on China before March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cf86e182d130ad9a730307fe919bcb18cd59c5bdad21bbdba6469d84e5cb242
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ea0…9928backed No | 51c | 4,547$2,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,334.28 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed No | 9c | 3,844$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.02 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed No | 61c | 1,370$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.79 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 41c | 1,103$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.23 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb74b…aadebacked No | 2c | 1,020$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +162.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 64c | 814.98$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.14 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 41c | 806.11$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.08 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 3c | 709.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 62c | 593.16$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.35 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +5.0wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 45c | 500$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 61c | 350.7$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.18 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 40c | 325.01$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.78 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…6cadbacked No | 9c | 300.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6264…9937backed Yes | 30c | 300$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.92 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…b0fabacked No | 70c | 286.34$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…99c4backed Yes | 20c | 254.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +70%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 12c | 202.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ff53backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +118%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…c6c4backed Yes | 57c | 196.92$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.92 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…b14bbacked No | 7c | 182.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 40c | 180$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe10b…5fe3backed No | 44c | 170$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 47c | 169.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 65c | 165.96$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.69 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3e…ac1cbacked Yes | 30c | 153.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 40c | 153.18$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.91 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 59c | 139.34$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.21 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…d5e8backed Yes | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +151.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f7…8569backed Yes | 45c | 111.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe199…56a2backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 47c | 99.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf645…b8c2backed Yes | 51c | 96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed No | 48c | 88.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…8e16backed Yes | 30c | 85.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 34c | 85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.95 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24b7…5755backed No | 63c | 80$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked No | 50c | 69.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedad…1af7backed Yes | 22c | 64.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 47c | 58.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74da…1ba5backed Yes | 74c | 56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked No | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…0308backed Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bf…1800backed No | 63c | 39.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b03…6367backed Yes | 50c | 37.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a5…877dbacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…60cdbacked Yes | 79c | 20.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4a…ebc2backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa607…3181backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.