MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x623eee29a97c8c5c4ef2764f929927c744e62e925c2bd968030660a49e918d3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdfcc…441bbacked Over | 49c | 21,374$10,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,575 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 51c | 18,426$9,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,116.64 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Under | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 564 | 51.1%288 W · 276 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Under | 54c | 4,306$2,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,995.66 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 48c | 3,534$1,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,684.64 | 631 | 52.6%332 W · 299 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 48c | 2,105$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.32 | 308 | 42.9%132 W · 176 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 51c | 2,100$1,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6b…8115backed Under | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Over | 48c | 1,939$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.6 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 52c | 1,670$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.6 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Over | 46c | 1,610$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.6 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Over | 46c | 1,518$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.05 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9a…5b99backed Over | 56c | 1,336$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.09 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 48c | 883.5$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.16 | 115 | 44.3%51 W · 64 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Over | 46c | 861.31$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +40%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd586…87cfbacked Over | 50c | 718.35$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.35 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 43c | 712.52$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.14 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 52c | 678.61$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.09 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 48c | 674.32$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.87 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fce…28f8backed Over | 48c | 600$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 97 | 57.7%56 W · 41 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x670d…0825backed Over | 48c | 480$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 452$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.4 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Over | 48c | 360.57$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 52c | 349.91$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.96 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 46c | 347.83$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0944…6771backed Under | 50c | 320$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 667 | 51.9%346 W · 321 L | +30.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Under | 53c | 283.01$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.01 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…77bfbacked Under | 50c | 260$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Over | 46c | 224.7$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.36 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 48c | 199.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 197 | 47.2%93 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…6116backed Under | 61c | 196.25$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.6 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed Over | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d89…9ddfbacked Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 407 | 53.6%218 W · 189 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe49c…773ebacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Over | 47c | 99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -13.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21e3…af5cbacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Over | 48c | 51.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Under | 53c | 47.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 104 | 51.9%54 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c82…0d7dbacked Over | 49c | 42.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd307…f2b5backed Under | 55c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x778c…dbedbacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf135…eb06backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5def…fd63backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2599…9218backed Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5this page
- Red Sox vs. YankeesYankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.