MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdb2bf07a5d621d6a66fd10773384283006269aa84046ac5ec6bbbdd582880e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,001
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked New York Yankees | 39c | 22,580$8,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,661.15 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Boston Red Sox | 61c | 9,366$5,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,713.34 | 550 | 53.6%295 W · 255 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0549…c052backed Boston Red Sox | 60c | 8,461$5,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,076.39 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcc…441bbacked New York Yankees | 38c | 4,225$1,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,619.35 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Boston Red Sox | 61c | 4,138$2,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,524.18 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 2,113$1,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,309.14 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Boston Red Sox | 62c | 1,235$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.7 | 631 | 52.6%332 W · 299 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Boston Red Sox | 59c | 587$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.33 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Boston Red Sox | 55c | 444.44$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.44 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked New York Yankees | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 260 | 55%143 W · 117 L | +21.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked New York Yankees | 39c | 375$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.25 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Boston Red Sox | 61c | 328$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.08 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Boston Red Sox | 59c | 322.78$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.44 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 308.75$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.43 | 115 | 44.3%51 W · 64 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 306.82$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.75 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Boston Red Sox | 59c | 250$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…47f3backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 210$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.2 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3853…a3d3backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 98 | 63.3%62 W · 36 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked New York Yankees | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 666 | 45.5%303 W · 363 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c82…0d7dbacked New York Yankees | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Boston Red Sox | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bb…c285backed New York Yankees | 41c | 99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.41 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8212backed New York Yankees | 41c | 85.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed New York Yankees | 39c | 51.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecf5…6a01backed New York Yankees | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Boston Red Sox | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5def…fd63backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 24.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 104 | 51.9%54 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Red Sox vs. YankeesYankees won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.