MLB · resolved market
ALDS: Royals vs. Yankees Game 3
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ee173460247d84e52ae079763dc70e71e1bb17862736992383a2031abc25651
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yankeesof Royals, Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yankees | 50c | 797.29$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.65 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Royals | 11c | 541.51$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.95 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d21…d894backed Royals | 50c | 474.2$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Yankees | 53c | 383.97$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.36 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Royals | 21c | 320$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked Royals | 24c | 254.43$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.35 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1443backed Royals | 49c | 229$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf4…314abacked Yankees | 51c | 229$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cd…238dbacked Royals | 47c | 224.84$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.27 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28b6…4eddbacked Royals | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc29e…9f80backed Royals | 50c | 152.6$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9542…4295backed Yankees | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dec…c5b2backed Royals | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a1…7235backed Yankees | 52c | 97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac51…3f9ebacked Royals | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…9c6abacked Yankees | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 52cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac7b…b2ccbacked Royals | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Yankees | 69c | 49.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x778a…1a6dbacked Yankees | 49c | 42.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yankees | 53c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +40%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Royals | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c5…67fcbacked Yankees | 52c | 32.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…1d4dbacked Yankees | 52c | 20.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c3…5350backed Yankees | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…1962backed Royals | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6806…5734backed Royals | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.