TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Red Sox vs. Yankees

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Red Soxof Red Sox, Yankees
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,670,714
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,079,974

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,670,714 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 680 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf29b…dd4cbacked Red Sox45c461,104$207,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253,607.2538043.4%165 W · 215 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Yankees55c426,001$234,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234,300.559462.8%59 W · 35 L+11.0wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1ff2…dbbdbacked Red Sox45c363,857$163,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200,121.44955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b1d…74ccbacked Red Sox45c282,716$127,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155,493.89440.4%38 W · 56 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yankees48c193,442$92,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92,053.161,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Red Sox45c145,004$65,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79,752.263152.6%332 W · 299 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed Yankees55c134,000$73,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73,699.9344456.5%251 W · 193 L+21.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Yankees55c130,000$71,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71,499.9760451%308 W · 296 L-2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7a3…8d0cbacked Yankees55c121,750$66,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66,962.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Yankees55c94,883$52,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,305.686653%35 W · 31 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Yankees55c80,000$44,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,000.155053.6%295 W · 255 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Yankees55c75,000$41,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,2506058.3%35 W · 25 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Yankees55c45,530$25,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,041.4213246.2%61 W · 71 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-13.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3672…edbdbacked Yankees59c42,367$24,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,806.99146.2%42 W · 49 L-11.7wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-25.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Yankees55c39,004$21,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,451.9838751.9%201 W · 186 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x006c…16eabacked Red Sox45c38,696$17,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,282.686547.7%31 W · 34 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Red Sox45c35,000$15,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,25048254.4%262 W · 220 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb1e…88d5backed Yankees56c35,000$19,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,6007058.6%41 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yankees67c31,736$21,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,224.271,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yankees55c25,000$13,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,7507363%46 W · 27 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1a2…372abacked Red Sox45c24,598$11,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,588.73040%12 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Yankees56c23,214$13,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,00019649.5%97 W · 99 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Yankees74c23,134$17,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,166.2945248.2%218 W · 234 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Yankees55c22,679$12,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,446.4153150.5%268 W · 263 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Yankees55c20,000$11,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,000.0743949.4%217 W · 222 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Red Sox45c19,530$8,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,741.5560249.5%298 W · 304 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x669a…dd31backed Red Sox45c17,968$8,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,950.84560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+20.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Red Sox39c17,865$6,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,982.274045%18 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb412…3026backed Yankees55c16,000$8,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,8008861.4%54 W · 34 L+6.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc9af…6371backed Red Sox45c14,349$6,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,891.892045%9 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Yankees22c13,108$2,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,921.112,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yankees55c11,111$6,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,111.018464.3%54 W · 30 L+8.7wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3a61…b560backed Red Sox48c10,330$4,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,417.68850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee5b…0e96backed Red Sox45c10,005$4,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,502.751741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Yankees55c10,000$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,50025453.5%136 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Yankees55c10,000$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,50056451.1%288 W · 276 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x81b1…0f83backed Red Sox45c9,858$4,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,421.78540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yankees42c9,500$4,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,035.4144749.2%220 W · 227 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Yankees39c9,241$3,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,622.867341.1%30 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e2c…ba05backed Yankees55c9,000$4,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,949.992360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdefe…5432backed Yankees55c8,800$4,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,839.9913065.4%85 W · 45 L+7.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6fb9…ce7ebacked Yankees71c8,322$5,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,900.31060%6 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-13.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Yankees32c7,914$2,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,515.361,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yankees55c7,500$4,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,1251,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Red Sox43c6,947$3,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,936.6715353.6%82 W · 71 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x49d2…59f7backed Yankees56c6,000$3,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,360475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Red Sox73c5,766$4,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,543.246239.6%183 W · 279 L-17.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Yankees56c5,714$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,20073352.4%384 W · 349 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb790…8389backed Yankees55c5,576$3,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,067.111947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Yankees55c5,523$3,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,037.511551.3%59 W · 56 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae38…66aabacked Red Sox46c5,200$2,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,808333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed Yankees55c4,800$2,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,640.067548%36 W · 39 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7197…14c8backed Yankees33c4,795$1,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,598.52941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Red Sox50c4,656$2,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,340.371,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Red Sox69c4,625$3,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,420.8312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ce…ddd7backed Yankees55c4,435$2,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,439.2512857%73 W · 55 L+9.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f82…9ae1backed Yankees35c4,286$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50022948.9%112 W · 117 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Yankees14c4,258$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.3116725.1%42 W · 125 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed Red Sox33c4,034$1,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,722.5320747.8%99 W · 108 L-11.6wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yankees55c4,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20013353.4%71 W · 62 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Yankees56c3,798$2,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,126.881,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Yankees55c3,500$1,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,92519252.6%101 W · 91 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd14a…e912backed Yankees55c3,500$1,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,925616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick46cpaid-66.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcfed…db6fbacked Yankees55c3,500$1,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,925475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick58cpaid+30%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4520…b2dabacked Yankees55c3,200$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,760757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Red Sox45c3,000$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6507349.3%36 W · 37 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf189…4c6bbacked Red Sox45c3,000$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,650875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+65.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8a4…9e63backed Red Sox31c2,880$886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,994.22958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+27.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked Red Sox37c2,872$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,807.4515650.6%79 W · 77 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Yankees55c2,700$1,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,481.6722142.1%93 W · 128 L-16.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Yankees69c2,617$1,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,805.5478445.3%355 W · 429 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe212…d5f4backed Yankees56c2,595$1,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,453.273138.7%12 W · 19 L-4.7wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-32.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x285f…2c03backed Red Sox45c2,542$1,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,398.111361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yankees56c2,500$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4004143.9%18 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb6a…1a00backed Yankees56c2,500$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4001361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Yankees56c2,500$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4002227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-33.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x09f8…e156backed Yankees56c2,500$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4001656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Red Sox44c2,500$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,399.9993240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14f…d518backed Red Sox45c2,250$1,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,237.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x016e…c700backed Yankees55c2,222$1,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,22224154.4%131 W · 110 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb876…c723backed Yankees56c2,205$1,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,23520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e2b…f218backed Red Sox45c2,193$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,206.333871.1%27 W · 11 L+6.8wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+35.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Yankees54c2,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0803458.8%20 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Yankees54c2,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08071751%366 W · 351 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd3e…2360backed Red Sox45c1,969$886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,082.832100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+102%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33f5…c156backed Yankees56c1,969$1,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,102.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd62b…86d0backed Red Sox33c1,964$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,323.643748.6%18 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7441…283bbacked Red Sox45c1,956$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+45%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa86b…79debacked Yankees56c1,956$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,095.3520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x45a2…73c6backed Red Sox45c1,853$834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.312100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+102%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9004…2a40backed Yankees56c1,853$1,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Red Sox63c1,847$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.5279740.4%322 W · 475 L-19.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Yankees65c1,840$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.8454941%225 W · 324 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd24f…849ebacked Yankees62c1,828$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1401681.3%13 W · 3 L+3.8wins+0.24per pick57cpaid+38.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x577c…e7d4backed Yankees56c1,806$1,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,011.110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bec…129abacked Red Sox45c1,805$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$993.01366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+34.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6777…2612backed Yankees32c1,801$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5843351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf2a…5240backed Yankees56c1,784$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.8820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x747b…26febacked Red Sox45c1,777$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x243b…64f2backed Yankees56c1,776$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.