MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x757c96d0d55e544149898d9ffcf455a17d8e01496583a29d2da440800455673c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb1e…88d5backed Under | 62c | 21,154$13,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,038.57 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Over | 38c | 16,704$6,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,366.1 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 60c | 4,186$2,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,674.4 | 550 | 53.6%295 W · 255 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Over | 38c | 3,786$1,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,438.93 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…86d0backed Over | 40c | 1,250$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 38c | 1,017$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.31 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6b…8115backed Over | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Over | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823c…0425backed Under | 79c | 981.49$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.91 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 21c | 701.99$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.42 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 61c | 532$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.48 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 62c | 517.74$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.74 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 40c | 503.23$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.46 | 631 | 52.6%332 W · 299 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Under | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 39c | 371.12$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.74 | 115 | 44.3%51 W · 64 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 22c | 281.66$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.66 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Over | 38c | 274.42$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.28 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -9.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Over | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Over | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 431 | 53.6%231 W · 200 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Under | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +6.8wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 197 | 47.2%93 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9b…5722backed Over | 41c | 193.02$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +6.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf135…eb06backed Over | 31c | 133.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…a6e2backed Over | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 519 | 53.2%276 W · 243 L | -24.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x757b…3238backed Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Over | 40c | 87.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 104 | 51.9%54 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef5…a454backed Over | 40c | 85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed Under | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed Under | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9925…7d0dbacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…d5b0backed Under | 62c | 20.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5this page
- Red Sox vs. YankeesRed Sox won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.