MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x615f768c732aae7cd5c6064a7d5132b72f3f6a5dcc3fad87088016c40817f2d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,213
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,213 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2509…e4dbbacked Boston Red Sox | 61c | 1,358$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.69 | 255 | 51%130 W · 125 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed New York Yankees | 39c | 792.96$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.25 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Boston Red Sox | 58c | 331.43$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c9…c193backed New York Yankees | 42c | 310$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked New York Yankees | 35c | 160$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…5e47backed New York Yankees | 39c | 157$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…47f3backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 140$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed New York Yankees | 25c | 134.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe708…e61cbacked New York Yankees | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked New York Yankees | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -9.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x757b…3238backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked New York Yankees | 35c | 85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…597ebacked New York Yankees | 51c | 69.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed New York Yankees | 34c | 59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 1,141 | 46.3%528 W · 613 L | +36.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed New York Yankees | 38c | 58.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c82…0d7dbacked Boston Red Sox | 66c | 56.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bb…c285backed Boston Red Sox | 66c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17dd…c7afbacked New York Yankees | 36c | 28.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 23.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 104 | 51.9%54 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Red Sox vs. YankeesRed Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.