AI · resolved market
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14e018530e174c0ae538b8d3a0cdc9a75c849eef27b1a63b30a405c62a91cba5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 3c | 12,969$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.57 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +59%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 16c | 4,201$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.55 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +16.6wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 9c | 1,924$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.13 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +12.9wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 16c | 999.89$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.98 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…34a7backed No | 3c | 989.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 757.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 9c | 450.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed No | 4c | 449.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42d8…ff9bbacked No | 17c | 400$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 9c | 393.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 16c | 371.23$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.73 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed No | 14c | 319.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 5c | 279.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked No | 19c | 260.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No | 16c | 249.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -7.2wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed No | 11c | 249.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a4…996dbacked No | 23c | 195.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…05babacked No | 19c | 144.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…8ad5backed No | 12c | 140.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 19c | 117$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 80c | 93.6$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7792…d10dbacked No | 11c | 91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 22c | 83.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 19c | 78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x486a…1a4fbacked Yes | 79c | 75.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd042…7198backed Yes | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4490…8261backed No | 40c | 25.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 17?this page
- Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.