Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Clemson vs. Louisville
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e4517ddf8bd310f042e56259dd4c93ad04a2a12d05cca7d7b6220a4926ce131
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Louisvilleof Clemson, Louisville
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,909
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,909 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa47a…fd11backed Louisville | 53c | 33,783$18,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,742.08 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Clemson | 57c | 22,511$12,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,756.42 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Louisville | 44c | 16,754$7,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,330.3 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80a5…f9babacked Clemson | 52c | 16,258$8,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,504.78 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…910cbacked Clemson | 44c | 5,351$2,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,332.3 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Louisville | 46c | 2,400$1,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,288 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Louisville | 44c | 2,222$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244.32 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Louisville | 43c | 1,630$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.05 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Clemson | 53c | 781.13$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b18…5facbacked Clemson | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7d…ac4bbacked Clemson | 51c | 55.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Clemson | 54c | 46.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 84 | 63.1%53 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Louisville | 46c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 348 | 42.8%149 W · 199 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Louisville | 47c | 41.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Clemson | 58c | 18.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 247 | 59.5%147 W · 100 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.