TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Spread: Brazil (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Brazilof Brazil, Scotland
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,180,214
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,268,831

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,180,214 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 401 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Scotland61c181,905$110,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110,504.544,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9243…658ebacked Scotland74c150,500$111,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,370.2115249.3%75 W · 77 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c1e…bab3backed Brazil26c130,000$33,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96,20022348.4%108 W · 115 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d7b…e2cebacked Scotland46c107,897$49,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,632.428440.5%34 W · 50 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Brazil53c99,999$53,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,777.342345.6%193 W · 230 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Brazil41c98,665$40,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,477.672,40737.7%908 W · 1,499 L-48.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cc0…5765backed Brazil54c96,048$51,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,503.216152.5%32 W · 29 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Scotland45c56,886$25,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,598.7174752.2%390 W · 357 L+2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed Brazil51c45,357$23,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,356.8819644.9%88 W · 108 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x10a6…4d8bbacked Scotland48c35,761$17,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,213.2364446.4%299 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Scotland51c32,308$16,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,587.953448.5%259 W · 275 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e1…99dbbacked Brazil60c22,668$13,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,024.6958049.1%285 W · 295 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc368…a3c4backed Scotland69c20,261$14,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,00016953.3%90 W · 79 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Brazil28c20,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,40018740.6%76 W · 111 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Brazil25c18,624$4,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,898.752,27139.5%896 W · 1,375 L+10.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Brazil28c17,420$4,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,551.932,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8325…19ccbacked Scotland51c16,035$8,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,105.8966846.7%312 W · 356 L+45.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Brazil31c15,614$4,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,810.911,14439.2%448 W · 696 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Scotland66c13,208$8,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,749.173,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Brazil26c10,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,40023942.3%101 W · 138 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…3931backed Scotland72c10,000$7,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,2007020%14 W · 56 L-6.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-39.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe987…f0e1backed Brazil28c10,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,249.9838026.6%101 W · 279 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7349…cc3abacked Brazil46c9,163$4,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,944.8120646.1%95 W · 111 L+12.9wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Scotland69c8,670$5,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,996.8277152.8%407 W · 364 L+17.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76aa…eff9backed Scotland44c8,431$3,726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,725.725753.3%137 W · 120 L+23.5wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+17.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Brazil27c8,304$2,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,062.161,04443.7%456 W · 588 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Scotland73c7,626$5,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,567.0770244.6%313 W · 389 L+13.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe275…f1eebacked Brazil53c6,477$3,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,035.154032.5%13 W · 27 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Brazil55c6,241$3,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,795.361,43840.1%576 W · 862 L-40.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ede…4284backed Scotland31c6,223$1,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,935.6518738%71 W · 116 L+0.6wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Scotland72c6,185$4,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,483.31,53649.1%754 W · 782 L+32.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Brazil60c6,148$3,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,470.664,02738.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L-26.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Brazil57c6,069$3,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,601.881,56339.8%622 W · 941 L-51.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Scotland55c6,016$3,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,301.882,81944.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L-36.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Brazil54c6,000$3,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,76016258.6%95 W · 67 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb70d…5925backed Scotland72c5,635$4,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,060.1711952.9%63 W · 56 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf742…e039backed Brazil50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,50026447.7%126 W · 138 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Brazil56c4,941$2,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,188.322,30737.6%867 W · 1,440 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc670…b781backed Brazil27c4,894$1,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,572.0652744.4%234 W · 293 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60f6…a196backed Scotland14c4,554$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.5446012.4%57 W · 403 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick11cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae76…2763backed Scotland11c4,554$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50018626.3%49 W · 137 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed Brazil24c4,444$1,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,377.4432029.4%94 W · 226 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95f7…5541backed Scotland22c4,343$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.210544.8%47 W · 58 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e60…3badbacked Brazil26c4,078$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,017.568627.9%24 W · 62 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed Brazil27c4,074$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,974.0728025%70 W · 210 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick28cpaid+0.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Brazil27c4,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,919.9925019.6%49 W · 201 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Scotland73c3,976$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,900.422,80555.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L+70.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Brazil56c3,744$2,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,651.6475335.6%268 W · 485 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked Scotland73c3,734$2,726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,72610059%59 W · 41 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd34a…78c7backed Brazil27c3,704$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,703.713721.2%29 W · 108 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0852…655cbacked Scotland19c3,588$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.6853629.9%160 W · 376 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab63…8f4bbacked Brazil29c3,448$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,448.2812634.9%44 W · 82 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a8c…ba13backed Scotland76c3,430$2,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,619.054854.2%26 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97d6…69e1backed Scotland74c3,378$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5009839.8%39 W · 59 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Brazil27c3,150$851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,299.560511.4%69 W · 536 L-16.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Scotland73c3,000$2,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,181.4248441.9%203 W · 281 L-16.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Brazil62c2,977$1,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,136.771,25239.2%491 W · 761 L+6.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-20.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xac35…ad85backed Brazil28c2,857$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,057.147320.5%15 W · 58 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc33…eb35backed Scotland73c2,670$1,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,949.227157.7%41 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x08ff…32ebbacked Brazil77c2,665$2,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.9810550.5%53 W · 52 L-8.1wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-28.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe00e…ea73backed Scotland43c2,567$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,104.5410732.7%35 W · 72 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4edd…ddf1backed Scotland42c2,288$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.8527034.4%93 W · 177 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Brazil59c2,260$1,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930.791,38040.2%555 W · 825 L-51.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4520…9182backed Brazil49c2,060$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060.9115146.4%70 W · 81 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Scotland73c2,000$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,45030950.8%157 W · 152 L-10.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Scotland64c2,000$1,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2783033.3%10 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Brazil27c2,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,459.9914234.5%49 W · 93 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…e7a9backed Scotland73c1,960$1,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,423.1944144%194 W · 247 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc769…8316backed Brazil52c1,923$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.087751.9%40 W · 37 L+7.1wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+19.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Brazil51c1,853$951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902.0526949.1%132 W · 137 L+14.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc128…2217backed Brazil54c1,852$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.8525228.2%71 W · 181 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d06…f79dbacked Brazil55c1,818$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.1812536.8%46 W · 79 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c15…9a45backed Scotland28c1,815$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.7736350.1%182 W · 181 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Scotland47c1,802$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.14,45737.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L+31.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf79c…cb96backed Scotland75c1,713$1,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,285.9492038.5%354 W · 566 L-21.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Brazil53c1,693$898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79587237.8%330 W · 542 L-39.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6cfe…c83cbacked Scotland22c1,684$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.1136234%123 W · 239 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c62…06fcbacked Scotland64c1,563$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002045%9 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Scotland74c1,542$1,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,148.081,70236.7%625 W · 1,077 L-31.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x910d…0d1cbacked Scotland66c1,515$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004548.9%22 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Brazil24c1,500$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,14027811.9%33 W · 245 L-1.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Scotland72c1,500$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08547643.3%206 W · 270 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x768b…bf0fbacked Brazil24c1,494$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,135.794459.1%26 W · 18 L+5.9wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+28.7%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x9865…57acbacked Brazil27c1,468$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,068.2510911%12 W · 97 L-9.4wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-66%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7439…8feebacked Scotland75c1,309$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.112556%14 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x56f4…9ec5backed Brazil43c1,289$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.5641331%128 W · 285 L+0.8wins0.00per pick31cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Brazil30c1,191$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.171,62732.1%523 W · 1,104 L+4.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Brazil68c1,159$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.5143230.1%130 W · 302 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-41%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xddf1…a604backed Scotland62c1,090$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.8826459.5%157 W · 107 L+18.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf03b…3ba1backed Brazil54c1,074$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.077135.2%25 W · 46 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e98…1583backed Brazil28c1,071$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.438349.4%41 W · 42 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc14c…f8afbacked Brazil28c1,029$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.574623.9%11 W · 35 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Scotland55c1,027$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.8883153.3%443 W · 388 L+15.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Brazil59c1,022$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.898,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Brazil53c1,016$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.31,35438.9%527 W · 827 L-55.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8adc…bafcbacked Brazil25c1,000$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75037754.4%205 W · 172 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23f9…3c2dbacked Brazil28c999.99$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.9917030%51 W · 119 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0189…5861backed Brazil27c999.99$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.9917636.4%64 W · 112 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x81ed…59f5backed Brazil25c983.87$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.8760821.9%133 W · 475 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8a…cb94backed Scotland45c947.18$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.8318056.1%101 W · 79 L+14.8wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.