Token Launches · resolved market
Will Berachain launch a token in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd625e0e9a3abf876489ac2f7beb8e51483075d60bbfa8e2a6daad60755dcb374
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $351,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $351,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ea8…efd8backed Yes | 0c | 38,831$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…e908backed Yes | 0c | 38,831$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x871c…2509backed Yes | 0c | 38,831$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5450…461ebacked Yes | 0c | 31,065$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf214…468dbacked Yes | 0c | 31,065$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e29…7ddabacked Yes | 0c | 23,298$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9715…af7abacked Yes | 0c | 23,298$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d5…5d94backed Yes | 0c | 15,532$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88d7…3479backed Yes | 0c | 15,532$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b42…b0c0backed Yes | 3c | 4,023$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 3,548$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.04 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb30b…ca19backed No | 73c | 3,333$2,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb1…aed7backed Yes | 29c | 2,758$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.91 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eaf…5a19backed Yes | 26c | 2,714$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bc…504abacked Yes | 1c | 2,634$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +287.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x257d…9969backed Yes | 21c | 2,306$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa85…6262backed Yes | 26c | 2,262$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc39…55c3backed Yes | 14c | 2,218$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…831abacked Yes | 10c | 2,082$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1859…254bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,682$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd163…1428backed No | 74c | 1,626$1,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2608…8d77backed Yes | 6c | 1,541$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3864…34f4backed Yes | 16c | 1,454$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa69f…6874backed No | 80c | 1,453$1,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.17 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 18c | 1,292$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.18 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…7083backed Yes | 27c | 1,233$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes | 15c | 1,199$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab2…6539backed Yes | 18c | 1,129$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0aa…8e3ebacked Yes | 4c | 973.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…4575backed Yes | 29c | 861.64$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1226…afdebacked Yes | 26c | 798.67$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 27c | 789$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.03 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65e2…d962backed Yes | 28c | 716.1$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78a7…6a3bbacked No | 74c | 705.68$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +230.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5456…2d0dbacked No | 64c | 629$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf11e…c8d6backed Yes | 36c | 628$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…b256backed Yes | 7c | 612.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedb2…9dbdbacked No | 74c | 507.16$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4b…e337backed Yes | 24c | 493.97$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6b…f255backed Yes | 15c | 491.34$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Yes | 22c | 460.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda6…08e5backed Yes | 22c | 457.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758e…a234backed Yes | 14c | 444.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f8…fda0backed Yes | 4c | 416.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0271…57e5backed Yes | 5c | 306.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…6598backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc9…c69cbacked Yes | 31c | 285.78$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c06…de33backed Yes | 9c | 268.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…48aebacked Yes | 37c | 268.56$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x171e…6141backed Yes | 37c | 266.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…dc55backed Yes | 8c | 247.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…c3d5backed No | 71c | 202.95$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3262…55afbacked Yes | 13c | 193.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc215…65c0backed Yes | 45c | 176.57$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe316…ac64backed Yes | 24c | 167.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45bd…d412backed Yes | 24c | 165.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f40…0477backed No | 68c | 162.94$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae05…f5d1backed Yes | 22c | 150.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf880…135dbacked No | 71c | 149.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 37c | 135$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ea…158dbacked Yes | 13c | 132.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa711…f6eabacked Yes | 19c | 116.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb61…54afbacked No | 74c | 107.03$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…4faebacked Yes | 15c | 106.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +272.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…88d0backed Yes | 31c | 96.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f25…cf87backed Yes | 17c | 89.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ba…13febacked Yes | 49c | 76.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb23…908fbacked Yes | 39c | 76.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x909f…d388backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6acb…3385backed Yes | 34c | 36.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8e4ebacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…e85cbacked No | 35c | 29.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +189.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…e952backed No | 58c | 27.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x279e…453abacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a7…8256backed No | 69c | 23.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6288…065fbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x903f…38b8backed No | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Berachain launch a token in October?this page
- Will Berachain launch a token in December?No won
- Will Berachain launch a token in November?No won
- Will Berachain not launch a token in 2024?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.