World Politics · resolved market
Will the NDA win less than 300 seats?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x179aa663b9f4860b1e6bb587ed874fc8f400e1d163aaf50fe7f8b8d072943cd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $134,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,533
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccec…28ffbacked Yes | 7c | 19,294$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,026.82 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 12cpaid | +420.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked Yes | 10c | 8,609$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,714.62 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad5d…67b1backed Yes | 19c | 8,508$1,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,905.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +165.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f1…9adfbacked Yes | 19c | 6,744$1,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,474.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab8…d256backed Yes | 17c | 6,013$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,012.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +167%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f03…c49dbacked Yes | 9c | 5,382$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,922.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 9cpaid | +309.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08fe…b8b2backed Yes | 38c | 5,297$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,297.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +118.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba73…0cfdbacked Yes | 7c | 5,284$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,918.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +261.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc51…e4d9backed Yes | 4c | 3,394$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,242.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 3cpaid | +1,019.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb268…46c7backed Yes | 7c | 3,181$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,951.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +278.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…c705backed Yes | 9c | 2,868$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,608.73 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +106%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…8cc7backed Yes | 11c | 2,188$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,951.94 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Yes | 78c | 2,055$1,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.52 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x432b…1a0dbacked Yes | 22c | 1,928$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,511 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +131%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…4a66backed Yes | 22c | 1,465$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.44 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 59c | 1,417$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.11 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x681b…bfedbacked Yes | 24c | 1,255$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf8…6541backed Yes | 4c | 1,224$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +512.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…1edebacked Yes | 9c | 1,163$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +189.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…00f3backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.61per pick | 6cpaid | +852.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 51c | 924.96$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x780a…8ac0backed Yes | 18c | 855.61$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d0…0caebacked Yes | 7c | 714.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +345.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb21c…6845backed Yes | 5c | 698.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 7cpaid | +521.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 50c | 541.02$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.05 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…4bfbbacked Yes | 50c | 516.67$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.85 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5261…db51backed Yes | 8c | 516.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,193.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2513…6c27backed Yes | 72c | 417.16$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x790c…033cbacked No | 67c | 371.01$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bf…7ebabacked Yes | 11c | 200.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +342%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked No | 64c | 155.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ba…ccf6backed Yes | 50c | 148.3$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…fe65backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb5…637dbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c03…8b7bbacked Yes | 50c | 89.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…6979backed Yes | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f7…149ebacked Yes | 50c | 45.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…1ecebacked No | 69c | 16.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the NDA win less than 300 seats?this page
- Will the NDA win 300-325 seats?No won
- Will the NDA win 326-350 seats?No won
- Will the NDA win 351-375 seats?No won
- Will the NDA win 376-400 seats?No won
- Will the NDA win more than 400 seats?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.