World Politics · resolved market
Will the NDA win more than 400 seats?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e32fd85a870d09ee702b15a21edb4492f24bf1b65aca3a2007a22d2ae081d56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 22c | 9,164$2,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,026.69 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc701…920ebacked Yes | 14c | 5,003$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 11c | 4,350$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.4 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed Yes | 15c | 1,100$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6269…22afbacked Yes | 15c | 800$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd889…4febbacked Yes | 16c | 796.25$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…a286backed Yes | 29c | 714.88$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 14c | 645$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…119cbacked Yes | 29c | 334$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x790c…033cbacked No | 79c | 317.06$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.06 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127f…b8ebbacked Yes | 15c | 302.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…72d4backed No | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4203…0894backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e5…72ddbacked Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +383.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecbf…8998backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…7f3dbacked Yes | 42c | 122.51$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fa…aa29backed Yes | 33c | 112.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b5…aa2cbacked Yes | 18c | 79.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…7bd0backed Yes | 29c | 67.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…f621backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1e…84cfbacked No | 80c | 48.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the NDA win more than 400 seats?this page
- Will the NDA win 300-325 seats?No won
- Will the NDA win 326-350 seats?No won
- Will the NDA win 351-375 seats?No won
- Will the NDA win 376-400 seats?No won
- Will the NDA win less than 300 seats?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.