World Politics · resolved market
Will the NDA win 326-350 seats?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x426f9a026f65b0c35e563fc5ba313f5e89e9327354dd1467feb269e24125e87a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 16c | 19,037$2,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,973.01 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba73…0cfdbacked Yes | 10c | 10,522$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +261.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…28ffbacked Yes | 12c | 8,634$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 12cpaid | +420.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f94…c64cbacked Yes | 14c | 8,002$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked Yes | 4c | 7,071$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.63 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…72d4backed Yes | 12c | 5,101$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.59 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…1edebacked Yes | 16c | 4,300$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +189.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21c…6845backed Yes | 10c | 3,023$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 7cpaid | +521.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab8…d256backed Yes | 34c | 2,959$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +167%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa06f…c402backed Yes | 20c | 2,525$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb268…46c7backed Yes | 15c | 2,244$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +278.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 9c | 2,162$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.27 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 14c | 1,960$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1e…84cfbacked Yes | 13c | 1,305$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f03…c49dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,292$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 9cpaid | +309.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x681b…bfedbacked Yes | 21c | 1,169$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f1…9adfbacked Yes | 19c | 1,088$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fa…aa29backed Yes | 22c | 1,045$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x338c…ab24backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…4a66backed Yes | 19c | 909.74$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.21 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e73…a236backed Yes | 18c | 679.57$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.51 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4203…0894backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb5…637dbacked Yes | 10c | 463.21$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 12c | 402.87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…8cc7backed Yes | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf8…6541backed Yes | 10c | 363.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +512.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 9c | 212.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb116…1305backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +245.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…fe65backed No | 61c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ff…df85backed Yes | 32c | 34.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the NDA win 326-350 seats?this page
- Will the NDA win 300-325 seats?No won
- Will the NDA win 351-375 seats?No won
- Will the NDA win 376-400 seats?No won
- Will the NDA win less than 300 seats?Yes won
- Will the NDA win more than 400 seats?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.