World Politics · resolved market
Will the NDA win 351-375 seats?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c5751480bedaf4e876e16ea32fe406858a9a27271fcf754e8091891c1a279b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 23c | 11,371$2,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,603.55 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21c…6845backed Yes | 4c | 3,500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 7cpaid | +521.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,422$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.44 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 14c | 3,205$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.99 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc701…920ebacked Yes | 32c | 3,166$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba73…0cfdbacked Yes | 21c | 3,110$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +261.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc982…547fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,276$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 25c | 1,422$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.3 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…119cbacked Yes | 29c | 1,366$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…4a66backed Yes | 22c | 1,181$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…7bd0backed Yes | 19c | 852.9$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05a5…55b7backed Yes | 19c | 700$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e73…a236backed Yes | 24c | 616$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.64 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…8cc7backed Yes | 18c | 556$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6269…22afbacked Yes | 22c | 553.76$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1e…84cfbacked Yes | 65c | 447.16$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4072…e69cbacked Yes | 19c | 419.68$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb5…637dbacked Yes | 18c | 405$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 8c | 355.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6038…fb1bbacked Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…2374backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +298.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf8…6541backed Yes | 18c | 191.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +512.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…df0cbacked Yes | 22c | 99.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…fe65backed No | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e42…2294backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fa…aa29backed No | 79c | 66.78$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6675…e8afbacked No | 79c | 28.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +165.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the NDA win 351-375 seats?this page
- Will the NDA win 300-325 seats?No won
- Will the NDA win 326-350 seats?No won
- Will the NDA win 376-400 seats?No won
- Will the NDA win less than 300 seats?Yes won
- Will the NDA win more than 400 seats?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.