World Politics · resolved market
Will BLɅϽKPIИK release an album before 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8abe71036e148e592c12aee32b2417e79984d0d3f36a7e016cae3f0b44301b2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes | 63c | 12,867$8,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,051.8 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked No | 3c | 12,047$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,663.15 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a5…98d0backed Yes | 14c | 11,200$1,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,572.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727c…15a2backed No | 50c | 9,465$4,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,768.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed No | 79c | 7,491$5,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,549.78 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c62…5d44backed Yes | 70c | 2,173$1,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,517.16 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4523…baa8backed Yes | 15c | 1,947$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 1,942$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.47 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1a…d9abbacked Yes | 7c | 1,790$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7da…830dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,588$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1604…ff0ebacked Yes | 63c | 1,567$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.35 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 21c | 1,470$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,167.66 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x947f…100dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,375$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf784…ab48backed Yes | 9c | 1,206$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked No | 5c | 854.23$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.43 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f2…6ff5backed No | 8c | 841.3$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,103.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 73c | 784.56$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.41 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -8.2wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…28ffbacked No | 4c | 767.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.92 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 12cpaid | +420.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…cdaabacked Yes | 65c | 753.75$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.79 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 20c | 700$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 10c | 699.28$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.98 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +75%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9de2…c042backed No | 12c | 690.53$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +286%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4afb…7a44backed Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed2…5001backed No | 6c | 661.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,552.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff4…5e65backed No | 11c | 645.82$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 14cpaid | +161.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc57…aa62backed No | 12c | 610.96$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +757.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee4…fa88backed No | 62c | 586.82$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.81 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 71c | 559.01$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.71 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…1edebacked No | 15c | 545$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +189.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…8497backed Yes | 6c | 520$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf99…1a91backed No | 12c | 502.75$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.95 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x597a…a541backed Yes | 5c | 500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23c5…3d76backed Yes | 6c | 490$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 475.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 6c | 417.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.05 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 4c | 415$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.35 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8981…ce82backed No | 8c | 414.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.01 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18e4…cfe0backed Yes | 6c | 350$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab0…955fbacked No | 10c | 349.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +214.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed6…b287backed No | 9c | 344.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c05…457bbacked Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfb…7b61backed No | 6c | 326.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,532.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed No | 18c | 320.51$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.79 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1804…bd47backed Yes | 67c | 316.17$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.77 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 69cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 6c | 304.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd8…d8fdbacked Yes | 6c | 275$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2338…780bbacked No | 47c | 270.52$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f43…cf42backed Yes | 65c | 268.67$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddc0…2b19backed Yes | 6c | 255$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 7c | 248.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.14 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f2…d8efbacked No | 75c | 244.04$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.91 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 35c | 239.03$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.53 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 40c | 237.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.1 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 9c | 236.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.81 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6342…12e6backed Yes | 6c | 235$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e11…b846backed No | 6c | 225.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.32 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 30c | 197$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 94 | 18.1%17 W · 77 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6159…cf6ebacked Yes | 33c | 156.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…f5b7backed No | 13c | 150$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.9 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +622.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 60c | 144.81$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2813…5c42backed Yes | 15c | 140.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 138$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6878…bec2backed Yes | 15c | 133.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…151fbacked Yes | 33c | 131.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8c…3a74backed No | 24c | 119.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +223.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 53c | 114.85$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce20…bb8abacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b06…9076backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 10cpaid | +389.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bf…9752backed No | 20c | 92.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +126.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84e5…4d24backed No | 22c | 90.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +127.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…abadbacked No | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 38c | 77.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17fa…cc95backed No | 71c | 62.06$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 43c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +44%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ba…13febacked Yes | 73c | 55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f1…ec06backed Yes | 77c | 51.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf203…2cb2backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d4…d476backed No | 34c | 41.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +196.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3814…f0bfbacked Yes | 65c | 35.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…02ffbacked No | 66c | 26.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 43c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -5.1wins | -0.18per pick | 63cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 63c | 19.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1122…2e16backed Yes | 66c | 18.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.