Movies · resolved market
Will American Fiction win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf452028530c0a263c3a2253532eef749679506f6821ac28bd9e2dd756efe151
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,585
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07b8…3842backed Yes | 55c | 3,457$1,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,541.01 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9981…dec4backed Yes | 61c | 1,822$1,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.54 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 20c | 1,609$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,286.96 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Yes | 60c | 1,302$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.3 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Yes | 66c | 976$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.6 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a4…8611backed No | 80c | 939.3$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked Yes | 62c | 704.66$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 67c | 519$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.27 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 79c | 350$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.75 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed No | 38c | 282.86$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…1edebacked Yes | 21c | 250$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71e1…45f0backed Yes | 57c | 232.38$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 20c | 222$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.6 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…d319backed Yes | 20c | 222$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…72d4backed Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f53…fa57backed Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f9…0285backed Yes | 62c | 179.03$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.03 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed No | 78c | 49.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked Yes | 60c | 39.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will American Fiction win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay?this page
- Will Barbie win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay?No won
- Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay?No won
- Will Poor Things win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay?No won
- Will Zone of Interest win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.