Movies · resolved market
Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3512dd217d54d7ada92e767729cae2a80ebd8a0b66889eb27820b7875deca97c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 53c | 3,600$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71e1…45f0backed Yes | 27c | 3,145$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Yes | 50c | 2,227$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111.96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…d319backed Yes | 49c | 2,220$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…a5cabacked Yes | 34c | 2,201$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.03 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked No | 73c | 1,636$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.69 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed No | 50c | 1,600$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…8de7backed Yes | 43c | 700.87$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce3…b625backed No | 74c | 650$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed Yes | 27c | 558.01$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.08 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked No | 73c | 395$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.65 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked Yes | 28c | 389$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.35 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 28c | 125$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b99…d04dbacked Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd8…aff4backed Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3379…c283backed Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9b…7febbacked Yes | 27c | 87.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ac…8a11backed Yes | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadde…eb78backed Yes | 29c | 74.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 55c | 70.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac51…3f9ebacked Yes | 49c | 69.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe2…3b32backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Oppenheimer win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay?this page
- Will American Fiction win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay?Yes won
- Will Barbie win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay?No won
- Will Poor Things win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay?No won
- Will Zone of Interest win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.