Middle East · resolved market
Iran strike on Israel by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd3667b80dc30a2cd5b720b17d3b376ce0c6599e25f8838a95788c781adb6884
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $302,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $274,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $302,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3df…6f87backed Yes | 2c | 35,849$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.68 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x091c…5d48backed Yes | 4c | 29,941$1,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,174.08 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d23…8f86backed Yes | 10c | 29,518$3,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,027.39 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…895fbacked Yes | 5c | 22,139$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.13 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29ca…54b1backed Yes | 2c | 16,961$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c4…e5dabacked Yes | 5c | 12,671$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaad…a862backed Yes | 5c | 8,314$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ec…ce12backed Yes | 2c | 5,500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -63%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7caa…861abacked Yes | 3c | 4,269$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 4c | 3,250$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.28 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 9c | 3,192$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.89 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +10.2wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf384…7f2dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,178$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3de7…d7e2backed Yes | 13c | 3,047$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd7…12b1backed Yes | 3c | 2,650$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…a72bbacked Yes | 13c | 2,632$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.32 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96fc…457abacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fc…d568backed Yes | 12c | 2,355$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 2,295$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x341c…8eaebacked Yes | 4c | 2,183$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.46 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x139d…fe64backed Yes | 6c | 1,523$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.67 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 1,368$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…8d1abacked Yes | 7c | 1,348$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b30…7cf1backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa046…00c7backed Yes | 11c | 1,200$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,066$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.97 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f93…355bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,054$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.41 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7754…39e5backed Yes | 3c | 1,031$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 4c | 1,001$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d8…8c3fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce64…b8f5backed Yes | 7c | 982.72$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb511…11e4backed Yes | 7c | 899.94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes | 6c | 866.33$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1058…b79cbacked Yes | 8c | 818.48$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 5c | 776.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…4299backed Yes | 4c | 511.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ec…0a8fbacked Yes | 7c | 473.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb097…54b7backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01d0…4afdbacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ad…daa9backed Yes | 9c | 399.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1a…ccbebacked Yes | 11c | 361.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae61…4e32backed Yes | 3c | 330.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…4891backed Yes | 8c | 329.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…d0c1backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86a5…5ac2backed Yes | 8c | 299.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9709…af53backed Yes | 4c | 250.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…050fbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fa…df8abacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7722…ee4bbacked Yes | 10c | 199.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 9c | 196.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3364…7fdbbacked Yes | 11c | 189.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…3f13backed Yes | 15c | 187.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78f2…022dbacked Yes | 9c | 163.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb92…fb18backed Yes | 8c | 160$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f13…e5d9backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9048…6fddbacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…5df8backed Yes | 12c | 134.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1b…d0b0backed Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5be…bc58backed Yes | 12c | 114.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…8bb4backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -67%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6d…b4ebbacked Yes | 9c | 108.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc3…faa0backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c9…6ee1backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7890…8868backed Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.