World Politics · resolved market
Will AfD make it into Thuringia or Saxony government?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x319ef56440de5fcc32facb131d3466a3ff79ef56bbf9355feb5bb6901e3de501
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $367,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $374,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $367,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9467…864dbacked Yes | 5c | 20,487$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8967…1e9bbacked Yes | 12c | 13,952$1,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650.72 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 12c | 11,676$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349.56 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d1…1a60backed Yes | 2c | 9,789$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 1c | 7,950$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 78 | 6.4%5 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28d…1fb7backed Yes | 3c | 7,549$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 15c | 6,844$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.92 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…2637backed Yes | 12c | 6,371$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44a2…5374backed Yes | 6c | 5,171$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa55b…f844backed Yes | 3c | 4,837$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.77 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2335…4ebdbacked Yes | 13c | 4,773$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6d…b42abacked Yes | 12c | 4,465$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2c…3544backed Yes | 7c | 4,305$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.94 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb705…e280backed Yes | 7c | 4,000$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b9…d6e1backed Yes | 3c | 3,849$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x712d…3d9abacked Yes | 7c | 3,762$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 3,292$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.65 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8df…be52backed Yes | 20c | 3,183$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2992…5351backed Yes | 3c | 2,930$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…f74dbacked Yes | 21c | 2,724$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.91 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…353bbacked Yes | 12c | 2,587$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.05 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 1c | 2,460$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 4c | 2,265$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.98 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3f09backed Yes | 2c | 2,247$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 17c | 2,214$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.94 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Yes | 11c | 2,000$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.45 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 16c | 1,962$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.92 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 20c | 1,914$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Yes | 8c | 1,914$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 11c | 1,778$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.1 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9ff5backed Yes | 3c | 1,667$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 7cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc099…2ea5backed Yes | 13c | 1,666$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5f…cf61backed Yes | 1c | 1,600$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa103…9b49backed Yes | 6c | 1,565$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db7…dcedbacked Yes | 1c | 1,511$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3753…dc42backed Yes | 21c | 1,453$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x941b…6ad2backed Yes | 7c | 1,429$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…0522backed Yes | 7c | 1,323$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 4c | 1,233$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60f…3aebbacked Yes | 4c | 1,215$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b1…7f9bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,139$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe617…f476backed Yes | 2c | 1,109$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91a3…e977backed Yes | 18c | 1,057$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 10c | 1,047$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.26 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe509…e721backed Yes | 3c | 1,009$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14a3…a5adbacked Yes | 4c | 894.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567c…f128backed Yes | 2c | 871.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x656b…1a0ebacked Yes | 5c | 862.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…c1a8backed No | 80c | 842.13$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.01 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7edc…29cbbacked Yes | 16c | 834.06$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.33 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…74f9backed Yes | 3c | 826.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb61…a3aabacked Yes | 8c | 813.68$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd4…50fabacked Yes | 9c | 750.03$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1880…f087backed Yes | 3c | 723.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22f7…4a6fbacked Yes | 3c | 657.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 3c | 649.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c98…eef4backed Yes | 7c | 642.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…73eebacked Yes | 21c | 623$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6a…c401backed Yes | 3c | 592.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2df…168fbacked Yes | 3c | 588.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 18c | 583.29$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.44 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1cc…e644backed Yes | 8c | 569.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 16c | 554.93$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.56 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0004…ef4cbacked Yes | 6c | 548.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…5679backed Yes | 7c | 541.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d61…e629backed Yes | 4c | 541.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6045…bec8backed Yes | 3c | 523.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb54a…cf5abacked Yes | 3c | 522.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf88f…43d3backed Yes | 10c | 505.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7978…5523backed Yes | 2c | 501.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ef…3d1ebacked Yes | 7c | 500$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce3…e62abacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada8…869dbacked Yes | 7c | 491.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc611…0f9cbacked Yes | 11c | 455$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 14c | 443.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54c4…65e1backed Yes | 22c | 432.18$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142b…32f7backed Yes | 3c | 430.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe3…ae97backed Yes | 3c | 419.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0843…97f5backed Yes | 5c | 417.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…4825backed Yes | 4c | 408.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…ddd7backed Yes | 4c | 405.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee8…7e06backed Yes | 11c | 398.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1a…fc92backed Yes | 5c | 373.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dda…00f8backed Yes | 4c | 360.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf351…73bfbacked Yes | 10c | 342.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 15c | 341.68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.67 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 5c | 312.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefd2…bc57backed Yes | 4c | 307.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31f1…382fbacked Yes | 16c | 307.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde30…5c14backed Yes | 20c | 303.11$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7722…ee4bbacked Yes | 6c | 299.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13cb…4d95backed Yes | 3c | 299.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3815…6053backed Yes | 4c | 297.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe85c…42dabacked Yes | 5c | 289.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 75c | 282$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.98 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 15c | 281.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4353…35e1backed Yes | 8c | 278.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb1…83edbacked Yes | 7c | 277$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.