Tennis · resolved market
ATP Finals: Zverev vs. Rublev
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12f40223995c7b9aa128e5c09de52b8a9c89c50664a37cb0d8152e4a27ade908
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zverevof Zverev, Rublev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,338
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,338 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95cc…7f08backed Rublev | 25c | 6,163$1,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…4303backed Zverev | 75c | 6,000$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…0d1bbacked Rublev | 1c | 4,010$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae61…4e32backed Rublev | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Rublev | 24c | 724.13$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.79 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Rublev | 22c | 225.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe214…73e6backed Rublev | 15c | 200.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…41b7backed Zverev | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd072…40fbbacked Zverev | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…aa3ebacked Rublev | 15c | 193.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e5…a482backed Rublev | 11c | 146.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d44…b15ebacked Zverev | 76c | 132$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Zverev | 79c | 106.91$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Zverev | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…fea8backed Zverev | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7722…ee4bbacked Rublev | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62e…b2b6backed Zverev | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197a…4932backed Rublev | 25c | 44.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9e…82fabacked Zverev | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…8477backed Zverev | 53c | 19.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…1380backed Zverev | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.