TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump transgender sports ban?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$255,691
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$252,857

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $255,691 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 270 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2023…2d55backed No0c99,876$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.884814.6%7 W · 41 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf916…9224backed Yes77c18,457$14,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,311.964650%23 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0d9…e4eebacked No21c9,191$1,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,896.731747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No28c6,963$1,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,945.6913537.8%51 W · 84 L-0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked No0c5,896$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.872400%0 W · 240 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4cb5…b536backed No12c5,321$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.032352.2%12 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick62cpaid+0.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No34c4,655$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,589.97331.5%23 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes74c4,553$3,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,197.0616943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No29c4,419$1,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,269.5199629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked No11c3,984$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.293212.5%4 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a25…81d1backed No11c3,789$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.443253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed No28c3,441$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.985756.1%32 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No1c3,100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8967…1e9bbacked Yes76c3,053$2,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$725.81520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-73.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No31c2,751$853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.111950.4%60 W · 59 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed No30c2,734$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.5612531.2%39 W · 86 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fea…d383backed No1c2,715$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.495922%13 W · 46 L-0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid+74.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No21c2,003$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.1221935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x48bd…9d3bbacked Yes75c1,992$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.612445.8%11 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked No37c1,751$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.017834.6%27 W · 51 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes71c1,721$1,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.217225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddd5…e366backed Yes64c1,590$1,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.56250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-21.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x91b0…f0b6backed No30c1,500$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.781560%9 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+32.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x10e0…781abacked Yes67c1,398$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.181435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-27.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed No7c1,349$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.4717713%23 W · 154 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No7c1,178$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.743859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfac5…7820backed Yes63c1,109$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.59185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-91.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes66c1,007$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.7713525.9%35 W · 100 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd524…8b92backed Yes65c999.98$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No38c999.95$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.9815646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd61…0616backed No8c967.46$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a56…adabbacked Yes59c961.25$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.932147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30c1…b697backed Yes70c944.6$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+27.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked No34c917.22$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.867254.2%39 W · 33 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes60c909.34$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.348643%37 W · 49 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32a4…3956backed No35c895.99$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.011241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9af5…5312backed No40c869.18$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a65…acf4backed Yes62c803.54$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.543050%15 W · 15 L+5.2wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+31.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4481…e934backed No38c788.21$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa289…d95cbacked Yes65c765.54$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.541258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+31.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No32c758.76$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.5632029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba01…1ebabacked Yes79c750$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.51553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed No20c630$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1265433.3%18 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf904…85ecbacked Yes66c604.48$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.481353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick42cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb010…b243backed No50c556.61$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70fa…196dbacked No30c551.68$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.173447.1%16 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1e9…9f36backed No38c535.27$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.13120%0 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No18c502.68$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.2814241.5%59 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcdef…010bbacked Yes62c502.53$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.42475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f8…c356backed Yes64c500$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1803100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c7e…4a5bbacked No20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1856…1964backed No37c499.98$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.991030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d1b…d2b1backed Yes65c472.51$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.383100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x73de…e21cbacked No21c468.62$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.41540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-39.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2683…b5bfbacked Yes65c464.32$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.32650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-25.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes61c454.99$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.0613540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b88…d628backed Yes59c445$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.453737.8%14 W · 23 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+94.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xab26…9656backed Yes68c419.5$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.974156.1%23 W · 18 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xca3e…f2fabacked Yes62c404.03$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.032065%13 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+36.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7bf2…70f3backed No20c399.97$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.99825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked No19c399.97$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2510137.6%38 W · 63 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes70c397$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.3623639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5acb…80e6backed No26c392.31$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x96e0…b648backed Yes62c387.57$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.284544.4%20 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf123…686fbacked No11c386.55$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.523125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-29.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No40c384.45$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.3317355.5%96 W · 77 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfac8…7a9ebacked Yes65c381.88$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.88540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-42.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a24…71e8backed No42c371.82$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.712630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dc3…7064backed No19c345.84$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.71425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes61c332.99$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.8741238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d34…5aaebacked No23c326.09$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-67.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1970…398dbacked No38c310$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.31838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x174a…f2cebacked Yes63c309.99$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.8837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes73c304.59$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.7996319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x71fd…fac1backed Yes66c303.03$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.03922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-65.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f6e…5727backed No36c301.25$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.455851.7%30 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd3eb…0829backed Yes67c298.51$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.513023.3%7 W · 23 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-51.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7caf…19d2backed No26c286.97$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+43.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked No15c280.66$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.277825.6%20 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-26.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x47bc…c043backed Yes61c264.65$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.211942.1%8 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+1.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5967…22c6backed Yes65c260$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e6…4f7fbacked No8c251.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.151070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked No35c250$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.511336.3%41 W · 72 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x89fc…b5c2backed No38c247.97$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.233023.3%7 W · 23 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick14cpaid+72.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed No38c244$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.826251.6%32 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe592…5887backed Yes65c240$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+30%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8659…8021backed Yes60c240$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$971050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe077…8ee3backed No9c239.07$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.997014.3%10 W · 60 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2cf…9d06backed Yes78c235.08$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.72425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-67.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcada…1fb5backed No23c221.22$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-54.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf9d…7213backed Yes62c220$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.6450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No18c216.28$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2230319.1%58 W · 245 L-20.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb73…a4bebacked No7c212.32$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.392814.3%4 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-53.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6ca…99b9backed Yes69c203.89$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.11323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.19per pick42cpaid-55.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No26c200.15$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2522347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbae8…ed0cbacked Yes62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick38cpaid+6.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7414…8e95backed No36c199.93$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.971435.7%5 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick21cpaid+34.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bdd…31acbacked No26c194.18$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e10…b3a4backed Yes62c186.19$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.75560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+50.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.