TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Earnings · resolved market

Will Oklo (OKLO) beat quarterly earnings?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,381
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,847

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,381 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Earnings
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c5,491$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8146314.3%66 W · 397 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa150…416abacked Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202420.8%5 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ebb…017abacked Yes39c508.21$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2106…4deabacked Yes37c433.89$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.389761.9%60 W · 37 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xba51…ff35backed No67c432.45$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.382544%11 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+27.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked No40c380$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.876137.6%286 W · 475 L+35.5wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a0a…9229backed Yes46c379.6$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.3511566.1%76 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes34c339.04$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.0617226.7%46 W · 126 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c9a…553bbacked No45c268.48$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.4813960.4%84 W · 55 L+14.8wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+34.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8911…d388backed Yes39c256.76$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes35c216.39$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.671717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-54.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No53c215.47$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.6720729.5%61 W · 146 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes37c204.91$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9521820.2%44 W · 174 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-21.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x470d…b463backed Yes49c203.01$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.257561.3%46 W · 29 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed42…c27abacked No53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick66cpaid+58.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No62c199.99$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7667442.7%288 W · 386 L-36.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x30c3…1331backed No52c191.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.874524.4%11 W · 34 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-27.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ce8…b14bbacked Yes54c185.47$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004746.8%22 W · 25 L-5.1wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-16.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes19c180.39$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3729024.1%70 W · 220 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c68…f2a8backed Yes30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64d7…4d00backed Yes37c163.38$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6021357.3%122 W · 91 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fb7…339dbacked No63c156.95$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.351233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-46.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbfd0…53b4backed No61c154.52$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.848634.9%30 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa405…99acbacked No67c149.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.52250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb04…c3dfbacked Yes33c148.85$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.591127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-26.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6628…ad47backed Yes37c148.29$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.873724.3%9 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9f5…a3b1backed No69c144.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.29785.7%6 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick74cpaid+17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc92d…2339backed No65c142.41$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.331250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf94f…3a52backed Yes36c137.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd0a…917dbacked Yes30c137.22$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7e3…300ebacked No61c115.28$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.28540%2 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick67cpaid-39.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c66…31e3backed Yes56c111$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1611860.2%71 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes48c110.99$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2810760.7%65 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes50c102.25$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4415530.3%47 W · 108 L-20.2wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-43.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes28c101.7$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4811032.7%36 W · 74 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3896…ece6backed No66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+175.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ae9…2b7dbacked No61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd555…e28abacked No54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4621639.4%85 W · 131 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+31.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x55dd…8702backed No64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.32per pick60cpaid-50.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9e96…633fbacked No52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484650%23 W · 23 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+34.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x18ad…657abacked Yes48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-74.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7873…db3ebacked No56c80$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7d3…dd19backed Yes44c80$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ddd…53ebbacked No64c78.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.13850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5834…f0cbbacked No72c74.49$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.491118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-53.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x098c…e4e1backed Yes28c70.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207731.2%24 W · 53 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9c9…d65cbacked No63c63.35$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.35955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00a9…36bbbacked No64c62.88$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.64862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d57…419cbacked No80c62.31$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09f6…1ed9backed No65c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Yes53c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.68743.7%38 W · 49 L-12.1wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-28.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xaaa9…9ea9backed Yes35c60$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+35.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe106…92c6backed Yes37c59.97$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed Yes29c59.92$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.654955.1%27 W · 22 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54fd…4ac3backed No45c58.33$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.086867.6%46 W · 22 L+8.5wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+13.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No54c57.32$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4511831.4%37 W · 81 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-26.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x78b1…f58fbacked No63c51.37$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.011741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-26.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1726334.6%91 W · 172 L-14.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x213c…618ebacked No59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.3wins-0.36per pick59cpaid-64.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed No51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.51741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcca…da80backed No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20520%1 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.40per pick60cpaid-66.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x10bb…d49dbacked No63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.510272.5%74 W · 28 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf285…52c2backed No72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0059…ca38backed No61c45.97$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.933100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+166.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f51…2019backed No65c45.83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8317441.4%72 W · 102 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa800…4986backed No53c44.53$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.93475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes43c43.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7257939%226 W · 353 L-25.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xddd8…31a4backed No74c43.53$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.32366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick75cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae50…0119backed Yes35c42.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbddd…3d9abacked No41c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.62259.1%13 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes26c39.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.44736.2%17 W · 30 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae09…6a64backed No64c39.06$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.06250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No60c37.47$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.846952.2%36 W · 33 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc97b…7f7fbacked No57c35.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.092454.2%13 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6041…2012backed No59c33.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+67.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2f4…d596backed No62c32.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7297…80edbacked No66c30.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes58c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.410132.7%33 W · 68 L-10.0wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x68cc…24adbacked Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+37.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a76…53ebbacked No61c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44fa…ddabbacked No67c29.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.851662.5%10 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick75cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xadc4…3df6backed No70c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.57333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.38per pick72cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ad8…69c9backed No63c25.02$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.21757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd87…dd8bbacked Yes67c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.42842.9%12 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-34.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb28c…be33backed No50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x214c…6378backed Yes55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111741.2%7 W · 10 L-3.8wins-0.22per pick63cpaid-38.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1fb7…61e9backed No50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109016.7%15 W · 75 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-44.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6e2…73bebacked No59c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.22864.3%18 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3d9…8169backed No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.22060%12 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick70cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa51…792ebacked Yes55c19.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.41per pick57cpaid-73.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.