TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe9c9…d65c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
38
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: World Politics, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 53 out of 100; worst Earnings at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Nov 20, 2025, EST1637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Warriors vs. Heatbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Rockets vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Suns vs. Trail Blazersbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+108.3%+$108.33
Jazz vs. Lakersbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Warriors vs. Magicbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Bulls vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$99.46
Grizzlies vs. Cavaliersbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Hornets vs. Bucksbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Heat vs. Knicksbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Hawks vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Raptors vs. Cavaliersbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+206.6%+$101.28
Nuggets vs. Clippersbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+53.8%+$16.15
Cavaliers vs. Heatbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+78.6%+$78.57
Bucks vs. Hornetsbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$38
Thunder vs. Clippersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+67.3%+$16.9
Warriors vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+150%+$15
All 16 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Nov 19, 2025, EST955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Target (TGT) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Weibo (WB) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Home Depot (HD) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+49.6%+$50.25
Will Newsmax (NMAX) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Virgin Galactic Holdings (SPCE) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+25%+$10
Will Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST+29%+$11.58
Will Oklo (OKLO) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+58.4%+$23.35
Will Tower Semiconductor (TSEM) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST+25%+$2.5
Will Wingstop (WING) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$32.13
All 9 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 13, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Nov 11, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritzbacked Alcaraz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+42.9%+$8.57
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$351Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$351.14
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Nov 13, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$14.07
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$94.1
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.