Earnings · resolved market
Will Weibo (WB) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf65865cf70adde28879bd3692be67f89db8053fd57f1285192d55da2d8ed13b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f63…6643backed No | 64c | 1,461$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.85 | 65 | 100%65 W · 0 L | +26.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 82+0.29 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 10c | 1,254$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.68 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77fd…b6c8backed No | 14c | 599.97$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 14c | 554.97$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.27 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x470d…b463backed Yes | 78c | 442.82$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.4 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…ad47backed No | 14c | 316.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.26 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 39c | 275$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 11c | 272$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 7cpaid | +324.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…5790backed No | 21c | 232.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 9c | 222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa31…5cc1backed Yes | 9c | 212.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8d…13b7backed No | 22c | 206.95$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.95 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 26c | 199.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.98 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 14c | 199.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.97 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 61c | 175$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.07 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…1456backed No | 13c | 164.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.92 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9379…2e25backed No | 17c | 152.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.11 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.38per pick | 51cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 16c | 144.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.97 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 16c | 140.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.25 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 74c | 140$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…5d86backed Yes | 76c | 132$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 47 | 74.5%35 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…7fccbacked No | 20c | 125$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 21c | 119.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.13 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b1…f58fbacked No | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 11c | 93.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.95 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 23c | 89.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.52 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 20c | 85.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.82 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 75c | 80$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4f…c6c6backed Yes | 73c | 65.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed Yes | 77c | 57.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 77c | 51.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c9…d65cbacked Yes | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…633fbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c4…84a2backed No | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked No | 22c | 45.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 73c | 43.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -10.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed Yes | 78c | 40.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad47…aa1fbacked Yes | 75c | 40.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 77cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44fa…ddabbacked Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 75cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0c…a55dbacked Yes | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 78c | 20.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…d234backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1240…6419backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b84…5061backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.4wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…36b7backed Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 87 | 72.4%63 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x366e…9215backed Yes | 78c | 15.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.