TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Cavaliers vs. Heat

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Heat
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,539,280
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,841,124

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,539,280 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 903 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3987…259ebacked Cavaliers36c1,060,508$386,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674,493.988022.5%18 W · 62 L-10.0wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-49.4%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Heat64c500,000$320,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320,0007745.5%35 W · 42 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Heat63c125,000$78,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78,7506352.4%33 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Heat64c71,477$45,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,445.3619249.5%95 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1602…3674backed Cavaliers34c61,000$21,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,959.892466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.8wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+37.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Heat63c60,000$37,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,80024650%123 W · 123 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Heat63c55,000$34,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,65087144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Heat53c54,452$28,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,688.785,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Heat63c50,000$31,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,50014856.1%83 W · 65 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Heat65c49,137$31,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,938.938434.9%134 W · 250 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca5a…7e43backed Cavaliers46c43,795$20,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,539.162941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Heat50c38,096$19,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,202.074,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Heat50c31,965$15,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,928.831,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Heat63c30,000$18,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,90059653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17db…5f6dbacked Cavaliers34c29,303$9,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,388.742060%12 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7197…14c8backed Cavaliers39c28,413$11,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,395.272254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+19.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Heat51c26,202$13,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,324.734645.4%157 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b71…8044backed Cavaliers35c25,000$8,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,2508939.3%35 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Cavaliers37c24,405$9,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,365.472,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Heat64c24,010$15,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,449.539,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc701…f932backed Heat64c20,000$12,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,8005250%26 W · 26 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdefe…5432backed Heat65c19,300$12,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,5187468.9%51 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Cavaliers39c17,775$6,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,882.7436148.5%175 W · 186 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked Cavaliers33c17,335$5,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,600.7920352.2%106 W · 97 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ce2…e868backed Heat63c17,000$10,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,7105850%29 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Heat63c16,272$10,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,251.0847848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eac…4c8cbacked Heat64c15,617$9,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,994.8811558.3%67 W · 48 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x575a…bba6backed Heat67c14,925$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00012529.6%37 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Heat65c11,696$7,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,631.558846.6%41 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x60cc…f0dfbacked Heat17c11,607$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,96010852.8%57 W · 51 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1f7…c4e5backed Cavaliers47c11,000$5,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,841.715656.4%88 W · 68 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Heat54c10,766$5,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,861.471,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Heat50c10,386$5,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,232.3226038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Heat60c10,033$6,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,02014434%49 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Cavaliers32c9,888$3,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,715.9527041.5%112 W · 158 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5822…629cbacked Heat64c9,076$5,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,808.58425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-60.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Heat20c8,560$1,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,722.7327917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Cavaliers34c7,777$2,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,103.4166744.5%297 W · 370 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Cavaliers35c7,427$2,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,832.9444648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Heat53c7,425$3,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,935.452,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Heat45c7,050$3,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,172.3566853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x016e…c700backed Heat64c6,944$4,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4442466.7%16 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x614b…bee6backed Cavaliers63c6,870$4,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,515.351050%5 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-27.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6734…2e18backed Heat67c6,868$4,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,601.847459.5%44 W · 30 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Heat39c6,502$2,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,551.1678445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Heat59c6,378$3,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,769.972,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc282…6b6abacked Cavaliers35c6,200$2,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,030366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+40.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Heat46c6,142$2,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,834.8580146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Heat49c6,030$2,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,948.811,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Heat77c5,974$4,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,602.6222457.1%128 W · 96 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Cavaliers43c5,902$2,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,338.0647751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8198…e96ebacked Heat65c5,500$3,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,57016446.3%76 W · 88 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Heat64c5,500$3,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,52047748.8%233 W · 244 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3e4…9241backed Cavaliers34c5,500$1,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,629.993432.4%11 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid+21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ebf…5f9abacked Heat66c5,400$3,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,564633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-41.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Heat65c5,074$3,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,283.1372450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Cavaliers36c4,750$1,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,025.0766250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Heat27c4,653$1,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,267.44922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-60.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Heat71c4,461$3,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,158.1685742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Heat47c4,451$2,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,077.138,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Heat65c4,381$2,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,865.3744459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed Heat65c4,248$2,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,778.7310236.3%37 W · 65 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-5.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Cavaliers35c4,150$1,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,697.51,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cavaliers44c4,060$1,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,284.811,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Heat46c3,939$1,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,811.8618142%76 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Heat52c3,891$2,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,010.031,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd735…968ebacked Cavaliers26c3,876$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,876.052759.3%16 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+45.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed Heat38c3,583$1,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,374.483461.8%21 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Heat65c3,500$2,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,27018047.8%86 W · 94 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Heat40c3,500$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4008036.3%29 W · 51 L-8.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-24.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Cavaliers29c3,452$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,451.7248448.8%236 W · 248 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Heat63c3,333$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1001,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa83b…0e4abacked Cavaliers27c3,300$907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,392.627050%35 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ffa…0788backed Heat65c3,297$2,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,142.86850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Heat63c3,166$2,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,006.6285344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c35…20c0backed Cavaliers55c3,164$1,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,424.81333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Heat64c3,125$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00017250%86 W · 86 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed Heat64c3,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9207957%45 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Heat53c3,000$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,59016844%74 W · 94 L-11.8wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Heat63c3,000$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,89043051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Cavaliers33c3,000$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,009.8933146.2%153 W · 178 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Heat64c2,954$1,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,892.372,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd97c…aedbbacked Heat65c2,887$1,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,88818452.7%97 W · 87 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9571…1d98backed Heat50c2,814$1,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,403.82147.6%10 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick62cpaid-28.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x265e…dcb1backed Heat66c2,800$1,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,848450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8005…abc0backed Cavaliers32c2,797$893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,903.742740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc11d…0299backed Cavaliers41c2,688$1,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,586.164264.3%27 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Cavaliers36c2,607$928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,679.0354747.5%260 W · 287 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe832…7abbbacked Cavaliers38c2,600$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6015455.6%30 W · 24 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3a0…b566backed Cavaliers34c2,556$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,680.651030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Heat50c2,525$1,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,255.781529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Heat66c2,500$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,65016053.1%85 W · 75 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked Heat67c2,388$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60043453.2%231 W · 203 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Heat42c2,387$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00031044.8%139 W · 171 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Heat65c2,366$1,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,538.0195049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe76f…39fcbacked Cavaliers36c2,229$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,428.8912050%60 W · 60 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Heat66c2,222$1,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,466.5276850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x686b…7d1cbacked Cavaliers24c2,179$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,656.172520%5 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-30.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Cavaliers58c2,019$1,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842.9634062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Cavaliers56c2,008$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.261,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.