NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Heat: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x580df8bd2a86fa11b957635c934db062d42d15e0c679c95d0e41528e52406b7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,872
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,872 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed Over | 52c | 7,562$3,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,629.75 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 6,208$2,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,979.69 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x087a…a510backed Under | 50c | 1,802$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 51c | 1,545$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.19 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Under | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Under | 51c | 980.59$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 50c | 914.92$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.24 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Over | 53c | 425.32$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.32 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa95…447cbacked Over | 51c | 409.8$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.8 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed Under | 49c | 409.8$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.8 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 47c | 343.8$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.59 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5276…74ddbacked Over | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Over | 54c | 225$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 306 | 41.8%128 W · 178 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 215$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32c3…2f56backed Under | 50c | 205$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26f7…3ea6backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Under | 50c | 198.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…e673backed Over | 50c | 197$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Under | 47c | 171.89$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.79 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 52c | 140$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Under | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…b20fbacked Over | 54c | 110$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2381…ea41backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f21…fa6dbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 53c | 95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 46c | 88.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cc…18cebacked Over | 52c | 59.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…81d1backed Over | 50c | 59.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 47c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6d…a980backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbba2…eaa6backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…0f01backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x707f…32f7backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7256…30c9backed Under | 51c | 35.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.24per pick | 45cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 166 | 58.4%97 W · 69 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca2…f018backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc706…faedbacked Over | 52c | 27.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8460…af5dbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Heat: O/U 238.5this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. HeatCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Heat: O/U 247.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.