NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x377363c89774d736402390b0b6ff4ae134dfc8c95203d3327c1f5ce7b3c7326f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Heat | 72c | 2,531$1,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,819.64 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Cavaliers | 30c | 1,004$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.08 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Cavaliers | 19c | 681.21$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.97 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Cavaliers | 28c | 537$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.67 | 331 | 47.4%157 W · 174 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Heat | 79c | 425.99$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.52 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Cavaliers | 28c | 356$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.35 | 623 | 49.6%309 W · 314 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Cavaliers | 28c | 356$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.35 | 312 | 50.3%157 W · 155 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Cavaliers | 28c | 356$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.06 | 479 | 48%230 W · 249 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Cavaliers | 28c | 356$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.03 | 717 | 47.6%341 W · 376 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Cavaliers | 28c | 356$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.03 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Cavaliers | 24c | 336$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.6 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Cavaliers | 28c | 213$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.77 | 340 | 53.8%183 W · 157 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Cavaliers | 28c | 213$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.08 | 317 | 54.6%173 W · 144 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Cavaliers | 28c | 213$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.77 | 342 | 54.1%185 W · 157 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Cavaliers | 28c | 177$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.95 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Cavaliers | 32c | 177$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.87 | 366 | 51.4%188 W · 178 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Cavaliers | 28c | 177$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.95 | 260 | 40%104 W · 156 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Cavaliers | 28c | 177$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.95 | 315 | 51.1%161 W · 154 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…6d37backed Cavaliers | 22c | 135$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67c2…c3a5backed Cavaliers | 22c | 127$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.06 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…10c4backed Cavaliers | 22c | 125$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf995…fc18backed Cavaliers | 22c | 123$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.94 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.38per pick | 48cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca6d…0293backed Heat | 78c | 116$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.48 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…d6e6backed Heat | 52c | 113.77$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…e673backed Heat | 78c | 113$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…8223backed Heat | 78c | 111$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Cavaliers | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Cavaliers | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x646c…3210backed Heat | 80c | 93.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.18 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa763…709ebacked Heat | 53c | 87.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 198 | 45.5%90 W · 108 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…8abbbacked Cavaliers | 48c | 61.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc984…1443backed Cavaliers | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Heat | 29c | 39.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 141 | 39%55 W · 86 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…e52bbacked Heat | 78c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. HeatCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Heat: O/U 238.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Heat: O/U 247.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.