Earnings · resolved market
Will Target (TGT) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc63ddd626ad05734c531a1241d486cea7c4c051636557d050b7c85fedc9cd29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 4,682$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.56 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 50c | 1,413$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.57 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked No | 34c | 704.43$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.45 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 2c | 682$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e98…a8e6backed No | 45c | 667.09$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x305f…2d33backed No | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…4ac3backed Yes | 62c | 412.19$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 7cpaid | +324.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 18c | 224.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 9c | 222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebb…017abacked No | 49c | 203.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…226abacked No | 33c | 199.93$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.98 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…1331backed No | 60c | 165.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa0…9b11backed No | 38c | 159.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…b14bbacked Yes | 63c | 158.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.6 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb102…c73dbacked No | 40c | 154.39$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.76 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…5d86backed Yes | 65c | 154$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 47 | 74.5%35 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 61c | 150.82$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.82 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…bf95backed Yes | 60c | 149.95$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ab…8231backed Yes | 67c | 149.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.64 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8d…13b7backed Yes | 55c | 120.88$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.88 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2e…45fbbacked No | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed Yes | 66c | 117.54$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8960…46ccbacked No | 43c | 109.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 63c | 109.31$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 47c | 102.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…b588backed Yes | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…1e6cbacked Yes | 55c | 99.85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 68c | 97.55$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64e3…aefabacked No | 44c | 94.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ac…d477backed No | 53c | 94.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c9…d65cbacked No | 45c | 89.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 45c | 88.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0472…c62fbacked Yes | 67c | 86.55$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…633fbacked No | 40c | 79.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed Yes | 66c | 78.36$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e86…6bc9backed No | 63c | 72.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -73%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x980a…bb1bbacked Yes | 49c | 70.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 56c | 69.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 58c | 69.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…be99backed Yes | 58c | 69.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed Yes | 50c | 63.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 64c | 62.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked No | 54c | 60.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4efd…9e75backed No | 35c | 58.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…2012backed No | 37c | 54.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44eb…e2b1backed No | 46c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…d85fbacked Yes | 58c | 51.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7415…fae8backed No | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…ef14backed Yes | 64c | 50.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213c…618ebacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.36per pick | 59cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9379…2e25backed Yes | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.38per pick | 51cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 42c | 44.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed Yes | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92af…dbe0backed No | 54c | 36.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…20a3backed No | 55c | 36.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac2…b76ebacked No | 39c | 35.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbf…06b3backed Yes | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e5…2244backed No | 34c | 33.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 37c | 32.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…c502backed Yes | 64c | 31.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked Yes | 64c | 31.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce88…7423backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…3f02backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 53c | 28.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad10…f1bcbacked Yes | 56c | 26.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b0…0319backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf195…43efbacked Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x307f…ed8dbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -12.1wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e2…73bebacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4f…f957backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.