Earnings · resolved market
Will Tower Semiconductor (TSEM) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dd1dd046d8c39fd397cdcd45c678d1475d55b318cca24dd5a935df88b4f73dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,193
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,193 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 4,975$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 22c | 2,100$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.25 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 20c | 2,000$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.11 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed No | 13c | 1,999$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.01 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 10c | 1,249$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.94 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…28dfbacked Yes | 77c | 1,230$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.46 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 17c | 1,029$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.41 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7a…74e3backed No | 3c | 578.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 22c | 568.95$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.55 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed No | 15c | 499.98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…5244backed Yes | 76c | 469.95$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7b…1790backed No | 24c | 459.65$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 12c | 449.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…2339backed Yes | 72c | 443.49$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.81 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f31…83cfbacked No | 8c | 423.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7081…bc4ebacked Yes | 80c | 413.38$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 75c | 382.03$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…be99backed Yes | 79c | 377.98$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.58 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…226abacked Yes | 79c | 350$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 78c | 332.93$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.25 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 76c | 299.98$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 72c | 279$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x470d…b463backed Yes | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df7…36cdbacked Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed No | 21c | 197.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc3…2a77backed Yes | 79c | 171.8$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed No | 23c | 168.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…cfadbacked No | 27c | 158.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed Yes | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…a649backed No | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 13c | 148.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 20c | 146.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 71c | 140$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…b14bbacked Yes | 78c | 128.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x841a…b4f9backed No | 21c | 127.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…5d86backed Yes | 79c | 126.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 47 | 74.5%35 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…0436backed No | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 79c | 110.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8d…13b7backed No | 22c | 108.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc193…7666backed No | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…bfa8backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0190…afdbbacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f7…55dcbacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 74c | 95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa978…01f6backed No | 22c | 90.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d88…b0c4backed No | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +342.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…d974backed No | 19c | 88.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 26c | 84.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0676…3b27backed No | 18c | 80.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 12.5%10 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…36b7backed Yes | 79c | 75.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 87 | 72.4%63 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ef…ee7ebacked Yes | 79c | 73.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4151…7283backed Yes | 79c | 70.89$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe2…f885backed No | 22c | 64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 28c | 63.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -12.1wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae2…47fdbacked Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f9d…1cb9backed No | 18c | 54.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7af…facfbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf08…bfc7backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 27c | 46.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcad8…7cd2backed Yes | 76c | 41.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3c…fda3backed Yes | 79c | 39.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8077…110fbacked Yes | 80c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ca…4472backed Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 72cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01f4…2c5ebacked Yes | 76c | 37.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27e0…7ce1backed Yes | 80c | 36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 78cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa8…b4e3backed Yes | 80c | 33.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0593…e756backed Yes | 80c | 28.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd4…d37abacked Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ed…4de5backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0529…8909backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 75cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc994…833dbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x905a…75dabacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 72cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d99…410dbacked Yes | 80c | 24.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…3f02backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2c…c361backed Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde50…abfabacked Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7da3…1336backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c59…8831backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b15…e32dbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c9…d65cbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c2…f0a4backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.