Earnings · resolved market
Will Virgin Galactic Holdings (SPCE) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c7eda4f825a7d4910fe6af23432c44a2f23064a865540fbb9022c7bb0d0ecba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,720
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,720 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 9c | 4,584$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.5 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked No | 16c | 1,853$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.28 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8809…c603backed No | 32c | 1,839$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 14c | 933.52$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.16 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -86%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…2339backed No | 19c | 767.92$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.9 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 11c | 488.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.83 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 55c | 471.21$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.48 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122d…6aa2backed No | 39c | 406.03$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d68…402cbacked No | 20c | 381.58$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.95 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed No | 18c | 323.6$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 76c | 310.77$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.52 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 14c | 304.02$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…1331backed No | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4f…c6c6backed Yes | 63c | 299.68$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.87 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 17c | 246.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…c4f8backed Yes | 79c | 212.32$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…36f6backed No | 21c | 187.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed Yes | 50c | 130.22$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.11 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 26c | 126.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 74c | 120.9$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 78c | 110$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9b…578cbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…3896backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c0…9a85backed No | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…f8bbbacked No | 21c | 93.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 20c | 85.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed Yes | 74c | 82.27$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb283…7019backed No | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c48…6da6backed Yes | 79c | 70.52$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 79c | 69.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…36b7backed Yes | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 87 | 72.4%63 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd87…dd8bbacked Yes | 67c | 59.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 20c | 55.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked No | 20c | 51.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45a7…fdb3backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c9…d65cbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 79c | 45.16$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -12.1wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x70d2…f395backed Yes | 52c | 31.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…7959backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4497…8c81backed Yes | 79c | 21.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bd…d82dbacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +81%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec7…2762backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fe…f3bcbacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…3f02backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…24adbacked Yes | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…868cbacked Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2c…c361backed Yes | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.