Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet 4+ times by next Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ea8755798df440eb9d1b00d6ce1252c630d5a3e7711119bbc02a332382748ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,700
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,700 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked No | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54af…bbfabacked No | 11c | 3,765$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2a…a436backed No | 13c | 2,089$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.35 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2188…ad36backed Yes | 69c | 1,587$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbeb…e6e0backed Yes | 71c | 1,550$1,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.59 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x364d…1739backed Yes | 77c | 1,483$1,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed No | 33c | 1,388$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.8 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…bbadbacked No | 12c | 1,384$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed No | 7c | 1,325$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.75 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77e3…868ebacked Yes | 78c | 1,284$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed No | 35c | 1,238$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.42 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked Yes | 57c | 1,195$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.9 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 4c | 1,048$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed No | 4c | 1,005$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb5…a862backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba84…7d26backed Yes | 43c | 980$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb8…ef59backed No | 57c | 980$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5da…2203backed Yes | 43c | 980$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00b5…536bbacked No | 57c | 980$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed No | 15c | 762.45$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.36 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x668f…d2d7backed Yes | 75c | 669.96$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…5512backed No | 16c | 600$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.8 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 79c | 588.45$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.45 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed No | 4c | 585.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +10.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 70c | 572$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.41 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes | 60c | 520.14$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…d485backed No | 24c | 399.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked No | 9c | 370.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1984…241ebacked Yes | 70c | 359.63$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 58c | 355.14$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.92 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7acf…f67bbacked Yes | 75c | 313.36$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.34 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 43c | 283$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.48 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…bf6ebacked No | 14c | 270.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4f…28b6backed Yes | 78c | 264.45$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 44c | 250$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked No | 24c | 233.87$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +149.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…cae2backed No | 44c | 227.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked No | 5c | 220$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8933…1495backed No | 50c | 196.75$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed No | 21c | 188$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac37…55eabacked No | 10c | 170$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe5…66c2backed No | 59c | 168.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49e0…2aa2backed No | 10c | 151.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…8e58backed No | 24c | 150.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce13…596fbacked Yes | 70c | 143.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 13c | 137.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…20d4backed Yes | 80c | 134.26$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3510…2238backed No | 25c | 128$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 77c | 114.24$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 78c | 109.95$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48da…0419backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe10e…cfddbacked Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xded2…abc3backed Yes | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked No | 23c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd61…0616backed Yes | 79c | 87.34$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e4…f310backed No | 60c | 83.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…ca5fbacked No | 38c | 79.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8053…810cbacked No | 25c | 74.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed No | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 33c | 64.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c8…4df7backed Yes | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c4…855bbacked Yes | 79c | 60.49$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 39c | 59.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 26c | 44.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf285…a3b4backed No | 40c | 41.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76eb…525abacked Yes | 54c | 40.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed No | 55c | 36.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.6wins | -0.31per pick | 58cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xddc4…46b1backed Yes | 53c | 36.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a0…bdf6backed Yes | 64c | 34.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 88 | 12.5%11 W · 77 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 45c | 33.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d7…50fabacked Yes | 70c | 33.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ef…d247backed Yes | 60c | 30.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a23…1b4cbacked Yes | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf375…bd6abacked Yes | 79c | 23.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927d…394dbacked Yes | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fd…95aebacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…2427backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…2747backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 60c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…f237backed Yes | 78c | 14.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.