Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Doug Burgum for Interior Secretary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80b13ee3bad1ae7ed782bda4dfca6bcc7c0cee91772d6c22ff8678d621f28e54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57c5…07aabacked No | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed No | 1c | 2,594$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +65%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 1c | 1,990$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Yes | 10c | 1,010$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +909.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…e1d7backed No | 61c | 815$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.85 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01f7…02dfbacked Yes | 8c | 802.34$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.15 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 12cpaid | +818.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 3c | 711.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.41 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 78c | 528$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.45 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked Yes | 39c | 508.45$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.45 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb702…e291backed Yes | 39c | 399.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.99 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 22c | 371.51$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.64 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…4f27backed Yes | 6c | 230$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.2 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…d383backed Yes | 7c | 213.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.5 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…6d1dbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 13c | 187.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.15 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 38c | 156$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.42 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e09…3cb2backed No | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…31ebbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 25c | 72.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.37 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 28c | 55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.88 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…a2b2backed No | 63c | 32.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 70c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…b10abacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Doug Burgum for Interior Secretary?this page
- Will Trump nominate Cynthia Lummis for Interior Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate David Bernhardt for Interior Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Katharine MacGregor for Interior Secretary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.