Earnings · resolved market
Will Sunoco (SUN) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01955b0dae956491f1cdf6829ae438d39d768f6a55698f0084b37cc2a7f84c1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xface…9d17backed Yes | 38c | 951.99$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.23 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked No | 60c | 325.38$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.26 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked No | 56c | 288.14$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.14 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf37…2454backed Yes | 42c | 240.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 44c | 236.78$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.32 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed No | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x470d…b463backed Yes | 42c | 170$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc6…411fbacked No | 63c | 159.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbe…b616backed Yes | 44c | 158.21$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed No | 56c | 136$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.84 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…2e68backed Yes | 38c | 130.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 35c | 128.12$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.84 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed No | 50c | 116.94$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.47 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 39c | 103.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4607…7811backed No | 78c | 98.63$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes | 30c | 97.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 63c | 90.01$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed No | 61c | 90$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 89.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 57c | 69.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…e4e1backed Yes | 39c | 63.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x902d…1f3fbacked No | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 19c | 55.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe091…4212backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…e711backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…633fbacked No | 57c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 90 | 16.7%15 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 36c | 46.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 62c | 44.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 37c | 43.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 69c | 41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 64c | 40.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0c…a55dbacked No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x905a…75dabacked No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 72cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 43c | 32.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d3…1f70backed No | 65c | 31.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa249…12fabacked No | 69c | 28.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…8ae4backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3029…0ab1backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…3d9abacked No | 68c | 26.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked No | 65c | 20.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x307f…ed8dbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 63 | 71.4%45 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed4…a52abacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcad8…7cd2backed No | 70c | 18.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.