Earnings · resolved market
Will eToro Group (ETOR) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ca5f001ee024206c0ee4febfb5abcf53d415e5c90ab30ab0d6d7275a1733ec4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c4f…c6c6backed Yes | 2c | 5,879$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 7cpaid | +324.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 33c | 691.26$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.3 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…2339backed Yes | 64c | 429.34$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.93 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 39c | 394.13$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.54 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d5…6c5abacked No | 42c | 331.67$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e58…aebebacked Yes | 55c | 303.33$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.36 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888c…e9ecbacked No | 28c | 299.98$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0026…1ed5backed Yes | 72c | 279.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6428…bc3cbacked Yes | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1544…6f27backed Yes | 76c | 250$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 78cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 37c | 199.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 36c | 194.41$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.93 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…3c7fbacked Yes | 59c | 171$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 61c | 164.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.64 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed No | 34c | 159.95$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.38 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…b14bbacked Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 64c | 139.85$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.06 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…e4e1backed Yes | 15c | 136.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…3d9abacked Yes | 73c | 130$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ab…8231backed Yes | 80c | 125.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf50…4397backed Yes | 61c | 119.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 17c | 117$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 33c | 115.06$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.56 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 62c | 111$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 62c | 110.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.81 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c68…f2a8backed No | 28c | 108.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.9 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac3…eda2backed No | 22c | 100.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x244e…ca5bbacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 68c | 88.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 87.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 578 | 38.9%225 W · 353 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked Yes | 62c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 34c | 56.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…633fbacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0100…3cf3backed No | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9b…578cbacked Yes | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 68c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…ced0backed Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…97bdbacked No | 36c | 35.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +176.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97b…7f7fbacked Yes | 56c | 35.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1722…3abcbacked Yes | 68c | 34.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfa…10f7backed Yes | 69c | 34.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8e…ce30backed No | 35c | 32.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad8…69c9backed No | 39c | 31.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a92…0616backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -10.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb3…df33backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8d…13b7backed No | 48c | 29.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4945…476bbacked Yes | 68c | 28.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f82…5716backed Yes | 71c | 28.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 60c | 26.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…df93backed Yes | 68c | 25.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 65c | 21.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe661…7327backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…3f02backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fe…f3bcbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d9…8169backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19c0…35f8backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x251e…3d0bbacked Yes | 72c | 19.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked Yes | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471c…9e94backed Yes | 64c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95ca…9c1ebacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.