NBA · resolved market
Jazz vs. Mavericks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b304219a99549afed9a167ec29686190d0c1e0cb7b8d966d4b39b1b86f16a4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Jazz, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Jazz | 15c | 5,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Jazz | 13c | 2,800$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 615 | 32.2%198 W · 417 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Jazz | 16c | 2,073$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.42 | 461 | 31%143 W · 318 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Jazz | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef8…1f8dbacked Jazz | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Jazz | 13c | 1,508$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.26 | 191 | 37.7%72 W · 119 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Jazz | 3c | 1,209$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 1,035 | 1.1%11 W · 1,024 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe51…3982backed Jazz | 18c | 1,115$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -8.0wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ff…805cbacked Jazz | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 428 | 27.3%117 W · 311 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb20…a151backed Jazz | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Jazz | 16c | 999.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 265 | 47.9%127 W · 138 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab15…dd2fbacked Jazz | 3c | 831.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9857…be38backed Jazz | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc12…1e02backed Jazz | 15c | 725$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked Jazz | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Jazz | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 228 | 32%73 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f34…cfafbacked Jazz | 9c | 490$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8025…ef54backed Jazz | 17c | 470.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f52…0380backed Jazz | 14c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba2…18a5backed Jazz | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 91 | 30.8%28 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…1de4backed Jazz | 11c | 185.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5eb…a613backed Jazz | 19c | 170.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x576b…7336backed Jazz | 17c | 168.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 183 | 16.9%31 W · 152 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Jazz | 9c | 162.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 424 | 34.4%146 W · 278 L | -19.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e5…65e7backed Jazz | 15c | 130$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c7…053ebacked Jazz | 14c | 126.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4998…a8d7backed Jazz | 17c | 121.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d36…e1a8backed Jazz | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3330…29debacked Jazz | 15c | 100.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Jazz | 17c | 99.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 774 | 37.5%290 W · 484 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a8…6dfdbacked Jazz | 12c | 94.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 163 | 25.2%41 W · 122 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…16bcbacked Jazz | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.