Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0cfeafdb9869d47d9631c300df8d9ab22e51fb28261ad567c0a18e620bc560f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,094
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,094 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc69b…2076backed Under | 54c | 3,385$1,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,832.54 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…1999backed Under | 71c | 2,264$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 48c | 1,500$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.79 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Over | 45c | 1,003$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.87 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Over | 39c | 780.63$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.32 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 30c | 768$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.6 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +134.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f88…c6e8backed Under | 69c | 609.01$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.97 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -13.7wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 30c | 600$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418 | 170 | 40.6%69 W · 101 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 71c | 544$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.24 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | +11.5wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked Over | 31c | 478.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.62 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 45c | 420.12$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.98 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed Under | 69c | 407.52$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.23 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 28c | 403.46$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.49 | 268 | 46.6%125 W · 143 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Over | 29c | 300$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Over | 29c | 298$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.58 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8a…76a2backed Over | 31c | 287.1$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Over | 29c | 277.61$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.11 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a1…d1eebacked Under | 49c | 244.78$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.94 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.33per pick | 48cpaid | -73%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf07b…def2backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 30c | 188.14$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.64 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…42e4backed Over | 30c | 187.37$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.16 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Over | 39c | 125$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.65 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked Over | 33c | 120$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 227 | 38.3%87 W · 140 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 50c | 100.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.18 | 98 | 35.7%35 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Over | 38c | 99.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.97 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Over | 30c | 82.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…226ebacked Over | 48c | 78.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 213 | 28.2%60 W · 153 L | -16.0wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…33dabacked Over | 30c | 75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…f04ebacked Over | 78c | 67.95$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Under | 56c | 54.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7e…dd3cbacked Under | 71c | 41.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Under | 68c | 32.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Over | 42c | 23.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4c…f414backed Under | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -5.1wins | -0.18per pick | 66cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…41f5backed Over | 73c | 14.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion (BO3) - The International Group StageTeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion - Game 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion - Game 2 WinnerGamerLegion won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5)GamerLegion won
- Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.