Earnings · resolved market
Will Bitcoin Depot (BTM) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbebda69dc045036e38e043d68f6cddd76815f2edfc05aed5f63a3071c8e5da14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,993
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,993 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3bef…9a71backed Yes | 34c | 2,031$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.5 | 21 | 95.2%20 W · 1 L | +6.7wins | +0.32per pick | 63cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 46c | 1,294$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.82 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,042$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.81 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 38c | 976.52$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.92 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 36c | 861.34$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.58 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d68…402cbacked Yes | 41c | 620.65$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.97 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…a3b1backed No | 68c | 619.98$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.49 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a02…3669backed No | 61c | 594.05$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed No | 56c | 501.81$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.21 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfc…5a35backed No | 73c | 438.15$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 40c | 400$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 48c | 372.98$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.4 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed Yes | 46c | 369.11$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.11 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Yes | 35c | 283.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked No | 65c | 270.93$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…be99backed No | 60c | 200$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb5…d37cbacked Yes | 41c | 200$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -5.7wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…c3dfbacked Yes | 39c | 181.85$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.72 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 58c | 175$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…1331backed No | 58c | 172.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.12 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dde…b8f1backed Yes | 33c | 166.51$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x307f…4f82backed Yes | 51c | 160$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 41c | 150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 43c | 139.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb283…7019backed Yes | 36c | 126.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked No | 50c | 119.61$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.61 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 53c | 111$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 51c | 111$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 106$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09f6…1ed9backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe46e…5334backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…8e90backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa9…9ea9backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7610…679fbacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked No | 63c | 94.63$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 63c | 85.75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 48c | 84.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -12.1wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…b43ebacked No | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…20e0backed Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…3d9abacked No | 42c | 62.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…061bbacked No | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Yes | 49c | 61.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 32c | 60.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd87…dd8bbacked Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddd…53ebbacked No | 62c | 59.43$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213c…618ebacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.36per pick | 59cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4efd…9e75backed No | 50c | 49.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked No | 61c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 63cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x669a…bf6dbacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…a7fcbacked No | 66c | 42.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x195a…b307backed Yes | 36c | 42.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a46…de81backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e3…300ebacked No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…064fbacked Yes | 33c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61d5…6c5abacked Yes | 42c | 31.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 38c | 30.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -10.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa170…fba0backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…abe0backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…a5b1backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 68c | 29.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe2…f885backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…1e6cbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…d234backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…792ebacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.41per pick | 57cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb591…29a6backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 63cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…633fbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x878c…9340backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe87…54fdbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked No | 79c | 17.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…8f19backed No | 70c | 15.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee2…6580backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.