NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Raptors
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x090a97d3a45ed7c182cb4250384db88a980a9b9c13ccde52f0276f566a7dbe2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Nuggets, Raptors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Nuggets | 62c | 8,541$5,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,215.2 | 476 | 56.5%269 W · 207 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Nuggets | 76c | 7,864$5,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.81 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d2…cfb1backed Raptors | 51c | 7,146$3,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,610 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Nuggets | 56c | 6,113$3,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,711.79 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Nuggets | 45c | 3,644$1,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,990.3 | 615 | 32.2%198 W · 417 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Raptors | 42c | 3,643$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,529.97 | 259 | 39%101 W · 158 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Raptors | 36c | 3,319$1,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,206.24 | 656 | 42.5%279 W · 377 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed Raptors | 28c | 3,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Raptors | 2c | 2,230$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 1,035 | 1.1%11 W · 1,024 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Raptors | 25c | 2,137$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.84 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe51…3982backed Raptors | 24c | 2,084$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -8.0wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Raptors | 23c | 1,999$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.81 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Raptors | 26c | 1,900$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33cc…a0b6backed Raptors | 72c | 1,681$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,213.3 | 184 | 37.5%69 W · 115 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc325…b18cbacked Raptors | 24c | 1,190$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaea…30aabacked Nuggets | 77c | 1,190$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff4…7ebbbacked Raptors | 43c | 1,163$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc98a…2a0cbacked Raptors | 56c | 1,071$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.02 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Nuggets | 31c | 1,065$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.52 | 531 | 34.7%184 W · 347 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ff…805cbacked Raptors | 26c | 972.03$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 428 | 27.3%117 W · 311 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Raptors | 24c | 837.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,090 | 35.8%390 W · 700 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Raptors | 22c | 744.81$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.86 | 265 | 47.9%127 W · 138 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b9…f457backed Raptors | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…681abacked Raptors | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Nuggets | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9857…be38backed Raptors | 26c | 386.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…28fabacked Raptors | 38c | 347.03$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.01 | 224 | 30.8%69 W · 155 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked Raptors | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x576b…7336backed Raptors | 17c | 278.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 183 | 16.9%31 W · 152 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…f6dcbacked Nuggets | 77c | 259.81$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…d02cbacked Nuggets | 77c | 250$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9395…7b2bbacked Raptors | 69c | 248.11$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78da…9d47backed Nuggets | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.29 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…2193backed Nuggets | 77c | 224.97$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.74 | 277 | 31.4%87 W · 190 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70a8…6dfdbacked Raptors | 8c | 222.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 163 | 25.2%41 W · 122 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdd…0b07backed Raptors | 24c | 203.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 103 | 34%35 W · 68 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Nuggets | 67c | 200$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 1,166 | 54.4%634 W · 532 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7ccabacked Nuggets | 18c | 177.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.78 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e3…a930backed Nuggets | 78c | 160.46$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0353…9741backed Nuggets | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…b950backed Nuggets | 35c | 130$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.4 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4565…7647backed Nuggets | 78c | 128.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Nuggets | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3447…fbf7backed Nuggets | 12c | 121.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd1…7918backed Nuggets | 67c | 114.1$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea6…aed7backed Raptors | 25c | 100.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x955f…17d4backed Raptors | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab74…3996backed Raptors | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5611…cc26backed Nuggets | 76c | 99.98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x649c…6e4fbacked Nuggets | 56c | 95.59$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Raptors | 44c | 95.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe800…e861backed Raptors | 48c | 91.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…a092backed Raptors | 24c | 84.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…e186backed Raptors | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.25per pick | 35cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0150…a67abacked Nuggets | 78c | 76.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Raptors | 74c | 67.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 208 | 51.4%107 W · 101 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a6…ee95backed Nuggets | 45c | 63.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…18e6backed Raptors | 41c | 61.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Nuggets | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 230 | 48.3%111 W · 119 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0c…770cbacked Raptors | 26c | 58.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a5…011bbacked Nuggets | 77c | 57.14$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd58b…7febbacked Raptors | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce7…fd4abacked Raptors | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74af…78b5backed Raptors | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c4…bbfbbacked Nuggets | 77c | 46.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 198 | 45.5%90 W · 108 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d2…0d35backed Nuggets | 77c | 39.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3f…27d5backed Nuggets | 78c | 38.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…8d2fbacked Raptors | 50c | 36.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62a4…7770backed Nuggets | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Nuggets | 75c | 26.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 139 | 69.1%96 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x484c…017ebacked Nuggets | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…ff3abacked Nuggets | 78c | 26.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d2…42d3backed Nuggets | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Nuggets | 77c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3685…69d3backed Nuggets | 78c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.