Space · resolved market
SpaceX 6th Starship launch reaches space?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8dff721f77d0acbe41dd8111ff85a98ee759bd5341d5e280e9e41506c73457d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,448
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,448 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed No | 1c | 6,500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb088…683dbacked No | 7c | 4,369$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked No | 5c | 2,870$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.7 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed No | 8c | 1,953$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x979e…3d11backed No | 7c | 1,070$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…c4c8backed No | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf9…c959backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb15d…2851backed No | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8897…dab3backed No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…0601backed No | 5c | 998.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf904…85ecbacked No | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed No | 5c | 803.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked No | 5c | 555$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x197a…4932backed No | 11c | 518.21$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e3…8a07backed No | 3c | 467.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed No | 5c | 443.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e8…77d2backed No | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 8c | 399.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 6c | 376.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…68d9backed No | 5c | 366.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ac…001bbacked No | 6c | 366.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35da…cb83backed No | 8c | 331.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…31ebbacked No | 8c | 299.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked No | 5c | 262$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7728…f932backed No | 10c | 225$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 7c | 222$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec1b…c92fbacked No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 6c | 183.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e12…141ebacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4562…aa66backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x922f…9789backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked Yes | 70c | 79.61$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…5cd6backed Yes | 71c | 49.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8505…79f2backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.