Dota2 · resolved market
Will Nigma Galaxy Win The International 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb423627c83576ffdc8d9c5aae827e62f62f9319e45fffc2138c690f6befcec6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $172,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94cb…64e3backed Yes | 2c | 25,736$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.43 | 188 | 30.9%58 W · 130 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1896…a7d6backed Yes | 9c | 23,296$2,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,070.5 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…59c6backed Yes | 2c | 10,879$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.57 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 8c | 10,800$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.46 | 233 | 36.9%86 W · 147 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed Yes | 2c | 7,693$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.23 | 82 | 23.2%19 W · 63 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 5,986$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.7 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 5c | 5,549$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.22 | 162 | 32.7%53 W · 109 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked Yes | 3c | 5,417$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa00…f736backed Yes | 6c | 5,140$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.7 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…5610backed Yes | 9c | 3,526$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…1a3abacked Yes | 2c | 3,495$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.19 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3452…1ba0backed Yes | 3c | 2,882$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.23 | 183 | 51.9%95 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb42…f1adbacked Yes | 1c | 2,728$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…992fbacked Yes | 7c | 2,070$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef5…3ff6backed Yes | 6c | 1,955$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d5…0789backed Yes | 7c | 1,703$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,473$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f98…4490backed Yes | 7c | 1,294$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd25f…eab3backed Yes | 4c | 1,257$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 108 | 40.7%44 W · 64 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed Yes | 7c | 1,192$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.35 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…af29backed Yes | 8c | 1,187$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1f…5757backed Yes | 9c | 1,156$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.76 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x582f…9cd5backed Yes | 6c | 1,063$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Yes | 6c | 1,050$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.13 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1a…0f22backed Yes | 7c | 1,028$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f07…53d1backed Yes | 5c | 1,020$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 217 | 39.2%85 W · 132 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…9c68backed Yes | 5c | 987.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 4c | 970.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 376 | 32.2%121 W · 255 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd5…a5e3backed Yes | 2c | 951.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked Yes | 5c | 776.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 535 | 58.9%315 W · 220 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6113…2443backed Yes | 7c | 768.42$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…2ec5backed Yes | 1c | 760.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 749.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 928 | 46.2%429 W · 499 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62e…2d85backed Yes | 15c | 688.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 5c | 589.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a71…1a29backed Yes | 2c | 589.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18dd…6bf2backed Yes | 6c | 510.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88a8…c238backed Yes | 2c | 426.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 5c | 419.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 5c | 353.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed Yes | 5c | 336.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb866…3302backed Yes | 8c | 300.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Yes | 7c | 264.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 7c | 252.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc96…2791backed Yes | 10c | 222.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c5…73cbbacked Yes | 10c | 218.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee9…f7acbacked Yes | 6c | 215$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x937b…1c0abacked Yes | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -53%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecfe…74e6backed Yes | 5c | 192$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed Yes | 6c | 185.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 7c | 176.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +47%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cec…91cdbacked Yes | 6c | 170$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bc…d806backed Yes | 12c | 163.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…ba78backed Yes | 8c | 142.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa108…573ebacked Yes | 9c | 119.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nigma Galaxy Win The International 2026?this page
- Will 1w Team Win The International 2026?No won
- Will Aurora Gaming Win The International 2026?No won
- Will BoomBoys Win The International 2026?No won
- Will GamerLegion Win The International 2026?No won
- Will HULIGANI Win The International 2026?No won
- Will LGD Gaming Win The International 2026?No won
- Will OG Win The International 2026?No won
- Will Team Falcons Win The International 2026?No won
- Will Team Liquid Win The International 2026?No won
- Will Team Resilience Win The International 2026?No won
- Will Team Yandex Win The International 2026?No won
- Will Vici Gaming Win The International 2026?No won
- Will Xtreme Gaming Win The International 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.