Dota2 · resolved market
Will Xtreme Gaming Win The International 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x846237a6c95484f20937326ce83577caf263405f1423b35af54a8ec98b36e197
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94cb…64e3backed Yes | 3c | 10,889$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.47 | 190 | 31.6%60 W · 130 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…59c6backed Yes | 1c | 4,270$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63bc…92c5backed Yes | 4c | 3,400$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.79 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,513$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 2,463$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9af…1fcabacked Yes | 4c | 2,247$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd5…a5e3backed Yes | 5c | 2,175$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8e…4cacbacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde3…8fa0backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cec…91cdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,201$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f07…53d1backed Yes | 4c | 1,111$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 217 | 39.2%85 W · 132 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b8…dd39backed Yes | 4c | 999.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 2c | 995.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…16debacked Yes | 4c | 928.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…fbccbacked Yes | 4c | 799.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a0…86b2backed Yes | 4c | 773.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7898…f40dbacked Yes | 4c | 769.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae1…1e7ebacked Yes | 4c | 715$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 329 | 51.7%170 W · 159 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef6…01a9backed Yes | 4c | 689.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7e…7278backed Yes | 2c | 660.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Yes | 4c | 629.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f90…4c92backed Yes | 4c | 599.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed Yes | 5c | 518.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f18…e340backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b1…6edabacked Yes | 4c | 489.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc2a…6f9cbacked Yes | 3c | 415.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7724…0492backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Xtreme Gaming Win The International 2026?this page
- Will 1w Team Win The International 2026?No won
- Will Aurora Gaming Win The International 2026?No won
- Will BoomBoys Win The International 2026?No won
- Will GamerLegion Win The International 2026?No won
- Will HULIGANI Win The International 2026?No won
- Will LGD Gaming Win The International 2026?No won
- Will Nigma Galaxy Win The International 2026?No won
- Will OG Win The International 2026?No won
- Will TEAM VISION Win The International 2026?No won
- Will Team Falcons Win The International 2026?No won
- Will Team Liquid Win The International 2026?No won
- Will Team Resilience Win The International 2026?No won
- Will Team Spirit Win The International 2026?Yes won
- Will Team Yandex Win The International 2026?No won
- Will Vici Gaming Win The International 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.