Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump appoint Karoline Leavitt for White House Press Secretary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x536156c83b6b46f7581af603426a5c63015d184d555fe6d57ef1939451cb1c12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 35c | 5,311$1,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,832.3 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3227…2727backed Yes | 67c | 3,772$2,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,253.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb169…b67abacked Yes | 57c | 3,257$1,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,411.57 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked Yes | 75c | 2,428$1,816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.22 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 59c | 2,344$1,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.4 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -69%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…9dfebacked No | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27aa…b07ebacked No | 30c | 1,452$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed No | 47c | 1,250$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.5 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked No | 38c | 1,188$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.95 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 47c | 945.83$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.7 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 31c | 743.56$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.08 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5456…f6e0backed Yes | 56c | 735.14$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed No | 35c | 628.74$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.7 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes | 75c | 588.06$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.06 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c9…b44ebacked Yes | 69c | 576.3$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked No | 40c | 550$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 44c | 505$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.09 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a90…265dbacked No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb544…0977backed Yes | 46c | 433.42$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce6…26bdbacked No | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…d918backed No | 34c | 397.14$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.66 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…d1d1backed No | 55c | 361.42$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0b8bbacked Yes | 4c | 333$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.68 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x341c…8eaebacked No | 50c | 299.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9c…ad87backed No | 29c | 271.35$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.35 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 4c | 250.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed47…6af8backed No | 33c | 246.05$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5d…b771backed No | 63c | 239.95$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7854…90a5backed Yes | 28c | 234.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.09 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c6…00a2backed Yes | 72c | 227.78$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…8701backed Yes | 67c | 224.95$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.23 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 52c | 222$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.67 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 49c | 185.94$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.99 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…6350backed No | 66c | 182.82$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.65 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 53c | 155$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.15 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +10.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed No | 35c | 146.16$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 56c | 125$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5725…36e3backed No | 39c | 119.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 35c | 119.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 68c | 105$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85a5…c8d9backed No | 56c | 105$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9af4…66c9backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422d…5cedbacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x996b…1e9cbacked No | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed Yes | 42c | 90.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed No | 49c | 84.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaf…eff6backed No | 43c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9401…e9ffbacked Yes | 29c | 70.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1984…241ebacked No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445b…a19bbacked Yes | 74c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 21c | 66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 29c | 60.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 34c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…33f6backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…5727backed No | 29c | 39.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…0d79backed Yes | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 54c | 33.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c4…8712backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump appoint Karoline Leavitt for White House Press Secretary?this page
- Will Trump appoint Alina Habba for White House Press Secretary?No won
- Will Trump appoint Kayleigh McEnany for White House Press Secretary?No won
- Will Trump appoint Nicole Shanahan for White House Press Secretary?No won
- Will Trump appoint Scott Jennings for White House Press Secretary?No won
- Will Trump appoint Steven Cheung for White House Press Secretary?No won
- Will Trump appoint Susie Wiles for White House Press Secretary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.